The Commodity Research Bureau's TrendTrader is Long Crude Oil, Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline and Short Natural Gas.
See full position report below.
Day traders work for the markets - Trend Traders let the markets work for them, the Trend is your friend!
Crude Oil
April crude oil prices this morning are up +15 cents and Apr gasoline is -0.29 of a cent. Apr crude oil yesterday spiked lower mid-morning but then rallied the rest of the day and settled up +$1.19 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed up +5.10 cents per gallon. Apr crude oil climbed to a 1-1/2 month high and Apr gasoline posted a 1-1/3 year nearest-futures high. Bullish factors included (1) the drop in the dollar index to a 2-week low, (2) an increase in demand after total US fuel demand over the past four weeks rose +3% y/y to 19.3 million bpd, (3) the prediction from China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals that China's oil imports this year will rise 5% to 214 million tons, up from a record 203.8 million tons last year as the government's $586 billion stimulus spending spurs demand, (4) renewed attacks by militants on oil installations in Nigeria, which threatens exports from Africa's largest crude oil producer, and (5) the larger-than-expected increase in the Feb ISM non-manufactur ing index which expanded at its highest level in 2-1/3 years and indicates increased energy consumption and demand. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected build in weekly crude oil inventories which rose to their highest level since Aug (+4.03 million bbl to 341.6 million bbl versus expectations of a +1.28 million bbl increase), (2) the larger-than-expected increase in weekly gasoline inventories (+773,000 bbl versus expectations of +300,000 bbl), and (3) the unexpected jump in the refinery capacity rate (+0.7 to 81.9% versus expectations of unchanged at 81.2%) which bodes well for further increases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles in the weeks ahead.
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About CRB
The Commodity Research Bureau has been leading the world in commodities research and analysis since 1934. Based in Chicago, Illinois, the firm has been the innovator of the CRB Indices, as well as the publisher of the CRB Yearbook, Encyclopedia, CRB Price Charts, TrendTrader and Futures Market Service newsletters.
About CRB TrendTrader
In 1963, the Commodity Research Bureau developed a computerized trading system for the purpose of removing the emotional human element from market forecasting. Since then, countless trading programs, timing theories, and techniques have been designed and popularized by an even wider universe of individuals and companies for the purpose of "beating" the futures market. Yet, today, CRB's TrendTrader remains one of the oldest and most respected technical daily market letters.
TrendTrader system analyzes four different technical studies to categorize markets as trending up, sideways, or down. These four studies are a combination of moving average, price volatility, market momentum, and various time cycles. Support and resistance levels are recalculated daily and serve as "stops" when the market is in a trend phase and mark the breakout levels for new up or down trends when markets are in a sideways mode.
The system is for medium to long-term trading and is designed to maintain positions throughout minor and medium-term corrections. TrendTrader tracks over 79 markets, including foreign exchange (FX), stock indices, exchange traded funds (ETF), interest rates, metals, energies, grains, meats and foods & fibers.
