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Barchart U.S. Morning Call


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Overnight Developments
  • Global stocks are mixed with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index down -0.59% and March S&Ps down -4.70 points. The dollar and Treasuries are higher, while most commodities are lower. Valuation concerns and some poor earnings results have knocked stock prices lower. European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co. (EADS) sank 5.2% after it reported its fourth annual loss since it was created in 2000 and as it scrapped its dividend. EADS reported a full-year loss of 763 million euros ($1.04 billion), wider than analysts' estimates for a 375 million-euro loss because of cost overruns on its two largest Airbus plane projects. Greek bank stocks took a hit after Deutsche Bank cut National Bank of Greece SA, the biggest lender, and Alpha Bank SA to "hold" from "buy," citing concern that Greece's economy will worsen. Antofagasta Plc slid 1.6% and led mining companies lower as copper prices fell and after it reported its full-year profit plunged 61% because of lower prices and output. Limiting losses in European stocks was comments from Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Weber who said Germany's economic recovery is "essentially intact" and will benefit from stronger demand in countries outside the euro region.

  • The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.17%, Honk Kong +0.05%, China +0.60%, Taiwan +0.11%, Ausralia +0.25%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +0.04%, India -0.29%. The yen strengthened and undercut Japanese exporters on speculation exporters are taking advantage of a tax break enacted last year on repatriated overseas earnings before the fiscal year ends at the end of this month. Asian commodity producers fell on concern China's metals demand may stagnate as government attempts to curb lending slow the economy, although China's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher after PBOC deputy governor Su Ning said there's no need for new measures to cool the property market and after China Life Insurance boosted its profit forecast. Australian stocks gained after jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet climbed 19.1% in Feb from Jan, the biggest jump in more than a decade, and as the Feb National Australia Bank business confidence index rose +4 to 19 and matched November's 7-year high. These reports underscore RBA Governor Stevens' view that Australian economic growth is at or close to "trend," and increases pressure on the RBA to continue raising interest rates.

Overnight U.S. Stock News
  • March S&Ps this morning are trading down -4.70 points. The US stock market yesterday traded on both sides of unchanged throughout the day and finished mixed (Dow Jones -0.13%, S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq Composite +0.25%). The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite all posted 1-1/2 month highs. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) carry-over strength from a rally in global equity markets after European stocks gained on French President Sarkozy's comment that the Euro-Zone is ready to rescue Greece should it need help in funding its deficit, along with a rally in Asian markets after comments from PBOC Governor Xiaochuan who said "we must be very cautious about the timing of normalizing policies," (2) increased M&A activity that drove AIG and MetLife sharply higher after MetLife agreed to buy AIG's American Life Insurance business for $15.5 billion in cash and stock, (3) comments from ECB President Trichet who said we have "confirmation of relatively robust growth at the global level," and (4) comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker who said that "this is not the time to take aggressive tightening action, either fiscally or monetary-wise" due to "high" unemployment.

  • Bearish factors for stocks included (1) weakness in drug makers and health-care stocks after President Obama reiterated his support for an overhaul of the US health-care system, (2) the drop in combined employment by US state and local governments for the eighth straight month in Feb, the longest streak of losses since 1983, along with the prediction from Global Markets LLC that more than 750,000 additional state and local jobs could be cut before governments start hiring again in two to three years, and (3) data from the Investment Company Institute that showed cash in US equity mutual funds dropped to 3.6% of assets in Jan, the second lowest on record, from 5.7% a year earlier, meaning there is less cash to drive new stock market gains.

  • Casey's General Stores (CASY) fell 2.4% in after-hours trading yesterday after the owner of convenience stores in the US Midwest reported Q3 profit of 34 cents a share, below analysts estimates of 41 cents.

  • H&R Block (HRB) slipped 2.6% in after-hours trading yesterday when the biggest US tax preparer said same-office tax returns prepared in retail operations slid 6.8% for the fiscal 2010 tax seson through Feb 28, compared with the same period last year.

Today's Market Focus
  • June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +6.5 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded modestly lower throughout the day and closed down -4 ticks at a 1-1/2 week low settlement of 116-295. The 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-1/2 week high of 3.728%. Bearish factors yesterday included (1) a decrease in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after French President Sarkozy said the Euro-Zone nations are ready to help Greece fund its budget deficit if needed, and (2) supply pressures ahead of Tuesday's Treasury auction of $40 billion in 2-year T-notes. Bullish factors included (1) comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker who said it's too soon for US policy makers to withdraw stimulus measures and that "this is not the rime to take aggressive tightening action, either fiscally or monetary-wise" due to "high" unemployment, and (2) an increase in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said "unprincipled speculators" threaten to spread the euro crisis worldwide and bring about a new global financial crisis.

  • The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.58 yen and the euro/dollar -0.79 cents. The dollar index yesterday recovered from early weakness and closed little changed. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) comments from Greek Prime Minister Papandreou who said his country's fiscal crisis could spread beyond Europe unless "unprincipled speculators" and "ill-regulated" financial markets are reined in, which increased the safe-haven demand for the dollar, (2) the prediction from Standard Bank Plc that the euro will fall to $1.25 "over the next few months" as the euro's response to a "resolution" of the Greek crisis is nothing but a "dead-cat bounce, and (3) the prediction from Royal Bank of Scotland that the dollar has room for "substantial" gains against the yen this year as a robust recovery in the US encourages thoughts of rate hikes in the US later this year and prompts global investors to sell the yen in order to fund carry trades. Bearish factors included (1) euro-positive comments from former Fed Chairman Volcker who said European officials are lucky that the Euro-Zone's first major crisis was sparked by one of its smaller members and that he's "still a believer in the euro," and (2) early strength in the euro after comments from French President Sarkozy who said the Euro-Zone nations are "ready" to help Greece financially if needed.

  • April crude oil prices this morning are down -$1.39 and Apr gasoline is -4.40 cents. Apr crude oil yesterday erased an early rally and closed slightly higher by +$0.37 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed up +1.82 cents per gallon. Apr crude rallied to a 1-3/4 month high and Apr gasoline climbed to a 17-month nearest-futures high. Bullish factors included (1) comments from French President Sarkozy who said that the Euro-Zone is ready to rescue Greece should it need help in funding its deficit, which boosted global stock markets and bolstered confidence in the global economic recovery and energy demand, (2) comments from Iran's OPEC governor that $100 a barrel is a "good" price for oil, and (3) the report from CTI Shipbrokers that said the volume of crude oil stored on supertankers has more than halved and has fallen to 43 million barrels last month from a record 90 million bbl in April. Bearish factors included (1) the dollar which erased early losses and closed little changed, and (2) the prediction from the chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG the crude oil prices will probably fall to $60 a barrel during Q4 of this year because inventories are high, demand is still relatively weak and OPEC still has lots of spare capacity. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for a +2.0 million bbl build in crude oil stockpiles, a +300,000 bbl increase in gasoline supplies, a -880,000 bbl drop in distillate inventories and the refinery capacity rate to remain unchanged at 81.9%.

Today's U.S. Earnings Reports

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) KR-Kroger (BEST earnings consensus ($0.34), VRSK-Verisk Analytics (n/a), JCG-J Crew Group (0.45), DKS-Dick's Sporting Goods (0.55), SLXP-Salix Pharma (-0.14), AONE-A123 Systems (-0.20), PSS-Collective Brands (-0.26), EJ-E-House China Holdings (0.44), ATHN-Athenahealth (0.17), KFY-Korn/Ferry International (0.11), EXEL-Exelixis (-0.23), SAM-Boston Beer (0.59), SSI-Stage Stores (0.68).

Global Financial Calendar

Tuesday 3/9/2010
United States
0745 ETICSC (Int'l Council of Shopping Centers) weekly retailer sales, previous -0.8% w/w and +0.7% weekly y/y.
0855 ETRedbook weekly retailer sales, previous +1.6% month-to-date m/m and +1.8% month-to-date y/y.
0930 ETChicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at the National Association for Business Economics 2010 Economic Policy Conference in Arlington, VA.
1000 ETMar IBD/TIPP economic optimism expected +0.6 to 47.4, Feb -2.0 to 46.8.
1130 ETWeekly 4-week and monthly 1-year T-bill auctions.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $40 billion 3-year T-notes.
1700 ETABC U.S. weekly consumer confidence, previous +1 to -49.
Japan
0000 ETJan Japan leading index CI expected 96.6, Dec 94.3. Jan coincident index CI expected 99.6, Dec 97.4.
0100 ETFeb Japan machine tool orders, Jan +189.4% y/y.
1850 ETJan Japan machine orders expected -3.5% m/m and -0.6% y/y, Dec +20.1% m/m and -1.5% y/y.
1850 ETFeb Japan domestic CGPI expected +0.1% m/m and -1.5% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and -2.1% y/y.
France
0245 ETJan French trade balance expected -4.0 billion euros, Dec -4.3 billion euros.

Morning Quote Board

Morning Quotes (ET)LastChg%chgUpdated
US Stock Futures
S&P (Globex) (H0)1132.40-4.70-0.41%07:12:52
DJIA (CBOT) (H0)10507-31-0.29%07:10:45
European Stocks
Europe DJ Stoxx 502559.95-15.12-0.59%07:08:45
London UK FTSE Index5568.58-38.14-0.68%07:08:52
German Dax Index5843.20-32.71-0.56%07:08:52
French CAC 40 Index3879.34-24.20-0.62%07:08:45
Asian-Pacific Stocks
Japan Nikkei Index10568-18-0.17%01:29:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng21208110.05%03:01:30
China CSI 300 Index3306200.60%02:01:30
Taiwan TAIEX Index777180.11%00:46:01
Australian S&P 2004820.112.20.25%00:33:51
Singapore Str. Times2839.544.970.18%04:10:01
South Korea KOSPI 200217.820.090.04%04:03:25
Bombay Sensex 3017053-50.06-0.29%05:30:01
Karachi KSE-100 9787470.48%05:50:08
US Interest Rates
10yr T-notes (CBT)(M0)117.0400.0650.17%07:13:06
Cash 10yr T-note Price99.1650.0850.27%07:21:01
Cash 10yr T-note Yield3.683-0.032-0.87%07:20
5yr T-note (CBT)(M0)115.2200.0350.09%07:12:46
Cash 5yr T-note Price100.0700.0600.19%07:00:01
Cash 5yr T-note Yield2.328-0.040-1.70%07:00
30-yr T-bond (CBT)(M0)116.230.100.27%07:13:25
Cash 30yr T-bond Price99.1700.1650.52%07:22:00
Cash 30yr T-bond Yield4.654-0.032-0.69%07:21
Eurodollars (CME)(M0)99.6450.0100.01%07:13:19
Eurodollars (CME)(U0)99.4550.0200.02%07:12:39
Asian & European Rates
10-yr JGBs (TSE) (M0)139.300.070.05%01:00:00
EuroyenTibor(SGX)(M0)99.6150.0000.00%3/9/2010
Bunds (Eurex) (M0)122.900.420.34%07:08:21
Euribor (Eurex) (M0)99.260.020.02%07:06:03
UK Gilts (Liffe) (M0)114.390.440.39%07:08:44
Short Stlg (Liffe) (M0)99.280.020.02%07:08:15
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index80.730.300.37%07:13:41
US Dollar-Japanese Yen89.72-0.58-0.65%07:23:53
EuroFX-US Dollar1.3555-0.0079-0.79%07:23:53
US Dollar-Swiss Franc1.07900.00580.58%07:23:53
British Pound-US$1.4957-0.0109-1.09%07:23:53
US$-Canadian Dlr1.03160.00440.44%07:23:53
Yen (Globex) (M0)1.11450.00680.68%07:13:34
Euro FX (Globex) (M0)1.3564-0.0068-0.50%07:13:05
SwissFranc (Globex)(M0)0.928-0.0044-0.47%07:11:40
British Pound(Glbx)(M0)1.496-0.0105-0.70%07:12:49
Canadian$ (Globex)(M0)0.9704-0.0026-0.27%07:13:50
Commodities
Gold (Comex) (J0)1117.4-6.6-0.59%07:13:50
Silver (Comex) (K0)17.035-0.237-1.37%07:13:23
Copper (Comex) (K0)337.0-4.1-1.19%07:13:46
Crude Oil (Nymex) (J0)80.48-1.39-1.70%07:13:46
Gasoline (Nymex) (J0)224.52-4.40-1.92%07:13:22
Heating Oil(Nymex) (J0)207.31-3.24-1.54%07:13:35
NaturalGas(Nymex)(J0)4.5430.0160.35%07:12:37
Corn (CBOT) (K0)371.75-3.25-0.87%07:12:26
Soybeans (CBOT) (K0)942.25-5.75-0.61%07:12:13
Wheat (CBOT) (K0)490.00-5.00-1.01%07:13:38


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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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