MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., MARCH 10, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
YOU'RE MISSING SOMETHING! The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday. On alternate days I also publish a Trade Alert that gives suggested trades as well. To sign up for both and have the convenience of receiving all my information via email. visit my website: http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/, register and submit. And you may want to request some of my free trading booklets too!
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TRADE ALERTS: None for Wed.
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short May corn from 388 1/2 down to 375 3/4.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
MAY CORN: It triggered a sell yesterday. If the market will follow through, it should test the previous 360 support level at least. It is now under the 20 day ma. That should help. Move stops from 388 1/2 down to right above today's high at 375 3/4. Closed 358 3/4.
Position: Short 374 1/4 (3.8).
Projection: 325.
MAY WHEAT: Stops were reached on Friday when wheat collapsed under the 500 support. It has now triggered a sell from an inside day yesterday. It is now trading under the 20 day ma. An attempt to get over the 20 day ma on the weekly has not succeeded. That is negative. The price to watch now is 480 3/4. If wheat takes that out on the daily chart, that should confirm the start of another wave down. Closed 489 1/2, down 5 1/2.
Position: Long 512 1/2 (3.3). Exit 495 3/4 (3.5). Loss $167.50.
Projection: 575.
MAY MINI BEANS: Last time it appeared as though they were headed for the 925 support level. That hasn't changed. They made a new low today at 935 but then rallied. They need to get back over the 20 day ma that intersects at 955 today. That would also get them back over the 950 support. They could go either way. Closed 947 1/2, down 1/2.
MAY MEAL: Since my last report meal has made a new low at 255.00 today. My previous projection down at 240.00 is still a possibility but it may try to rally from the 255 level since it tested it twice and held. On the monthly chart, it needs to get back over 260.00 to save face - as the saying goes. Both the monthly and weekly charts have sell signals so meal has that to deal with. Closed 258.70, unchanged.
MAY BEAN OIL: It has continued to consolidate right above 40.00. Long term the market looks constructive but near term it could go either way at this point. If the rest of the bean complex sells off, I find it hard to imagine bean oil taking off and making new highs, let alone holding up here. I suspect it is for that reason that it is stuck here - because of the pressure from the rest of the bean complex. Just watching. Closed 40.30, up .02.
MEAT COMMENTS:
JUNE HOGS: They rallied to 82.50 last week and after three days of attempting to get over that level, they started to sell off - very slowly - until today. Long term they have been in a resistance area. I even tried to short them last week but I was early. This sell-off should bring hogs down to 70.00 (basis the April) on the monthly chart. The June hogs will run into some support at 80.00 to start. Closed 80.47, down .97.
APRIL CATTLE: I had projections up to 95.00 in cattle on the monthly chart and they are getting very close to that. On the weekly chart they have a gap up at 95.25. That should be filled. That is also a resistance area. If they sell off from that level and have a good correction, it should be one to buy. If you look at the weekly chart, they have a very huge base under them now that should bring them to higher prices yet - approximately the 98.00 - 100.00 level. Closed 94.40, up .20.
SOFTS:
MAY COTTON: The monthly chart is forming a key reversal top this month. That is negative and could signal the end to the huge move that it has had. This current move stopped just short of 85.00, the same level/resistance that stopped the move in 2003. On the monthly chart, the macd is suggesting a top as well since it has reached the same level that signaled a top to the market in 2003 and also in 2008. Closed 80.33, down 1.71.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: It is obviously setting up for a move. It has had four days of inside and or outside days in a row. When a market does so, it is usually setting up for a very extensive breakout. Tomorrow there is also an early report on orange juice to make it more complicated. Long term it is in resistance. Closed 147.15, down 2.15.
MAY COFFEE: I attempted to short it more than once. It finally rallied today up to 134.25. Being in a downtrend, when it has done this before, it has been the setup for another wave down. Just watching. Closed 132.75, up 1.65.
MAY COCOA: I exited on Friday at 28.54. It was just sitting there and not selling off. Normally when a market does so, it is going to rally. It did and reached 28.87. Today it sold off and has made a new low at 27.66 but did rally to close over the 28.00 support - just barely. Just watching. Closed 28.02, down 32.
Position: Short 28.45 (3.2). Exit 28.54 (3.5). Loss $90.
Projection: 26.00.
MAY SUGAR: I tried to buy sugar as it attempted to consolidate around the 21.00 support. It reached my price at night but not during the day. It has sold off since and has taken out the 21.00 support area. Today's low 20.22. There is minor support at 20.00 long term but the stronger support is down at 18.00. I had recommended a short at a much higher level. Unfortunately that was one of those instances where it did make its move at night with continued follow through. I never got in after that and it has sold off since. A great trend. Closed 20.32, down 1.25.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
