• Global stocks are mixed with the European DJ Stoxx 50 Index down -0.19% and March S&Ps up +1.00 point. European stocks are fluctuating on either side of unchanged in uninspired trade. Jan German exports unexpectedly declined -6.3% m/m, the biggest drop in a year, which ends a 4-month streak of gains as demand for German goods slumped. Jan UK industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.9% m/m and UK Prime Minister Brown said his country's economic recovery is still "fragile" and in its early stages. Former European Commissioner Prodi said the worst of Greece's financial crisis is over and other European nations won't follow in its path. Prodi said intervention by European nations to date "was enough" and countries such as Spain and Portugal have "plenty of time" to get their finances in order. Fortis rose over 2% after the owner of Belgium's biggest life insurer reported full-year net income of 1.19 billion euros ($1.6 billion), which beat analysts' estimates of 1.12 billion-euros and said it will resume dividend payouts. ICAP Plc jumped nearly 5% after the world's largest broker of transactions between banks said rival Tullet Prebon Plc announced it was in takeover talks.

• The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.04%, Hong Kong unchanged, China -0.79%, Taiwan +0.11%, Australia unchanged, Singapore +0.80%, South Korea unchanged, India +0.27%. Asian stocks received a boost after Feb China exports surged 45.7% m/m, more than the 38.3% m/m expected, and the biggest increase in 3 years. Feb China property prices climbed a larger-than-expected +10.7% y/y, the biggest increase in nearly 2 years, which will put pressure on the Chinese government to reduce property speculation and the risk of asset bubbles. Metals prices rose on he improved economic outlook for China, which boosted Asian mining companies and raw-material producers. Despite the upbeat economic data, Chinese stocks closed lower on concern the PBOC may raise interest rates to cool the economy. Deflation risks still remain in Japan after the Feb Japan domestic corporate goods price index fell -1.5% y/y, its 14th consecutive year-over-year decline, which weakened the yen along with comments from BOJ board member Suda who said that upside and downside risks for the economy are now balanced and that the BOJ will maintain its extremely accommodative monetary policy.

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +1,00 point. The US stock market yesterday shook off early weakness and finished higher (Dow Jones +0.11%, S&P 500 +0.17%, Nasdaq Composite +0.36%). The S&P 500 and Dow Jones climbed to 1-1/2 month highs while the Nasdaq Composite surged to a 1-1/2 year high. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) the report from the US Labor Department that showed US job openings in Jan rose by +193,000 to 2.72 million, the second straight monthly increase and a sign that employers are gaining confidence in the economic recovery, (2) strength in the airlines after UAL reported that Feb revenue for each passenger flown a mile increased by 17%-19%, (3) the prediction from the chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley who said that with enormous liquidity, low interest rates and low inflation, the S&P 500 Index will climb to 1,233 this year, (4) the prediction from the chief economist at First Trust Portfolios that the US economy could add 300,000 jobs this month as businesses rebound from blizzards last month that prevented hiring in parts of the country, and (5) the prediction from Robert W. Baird & Co. that the S&P 500 Index will surpass January's 17-month high because market momentum has picked up while overall investor psychology remains skeptical, which supports the prospects for additional gains.

• Bearish factors for stocks included (1) the survey from Manpower that showed 73% of US employers anticipated no change in hiring in Q2 of 2010, the same level as in Q1 and the highest level since Manpower began the survey in 1972, which signals sustained job creation will take time as the economy recovers, (2) the statement from Fitch Ratings that said it may cut Portugal's credit ratings, which fuels concern that a sovereign debt crisis may spread in the European Union and crimp the global economic recovery, and (3) the warning from the co-chairman of the commission on US deficit reduction who warned that the US will turn into a "second-rate power" if the costs of entitlement programs such as Social Security aren't reduced.

• Facet Biotech (FACT) surged 56% in European trading after Abbott Labs agreed to buy the company for $27 a share, a 67% premium over yesterday's closing price.

• Allergan (AGN) rose 1.8% in European trading after US regulators approved the company's Botox to treat spasticity in the flexor muscles of the elbow, wrist and fingers.

• June 10-year T-notes this morning are trading down -4 ticks. T-note prices yesterday traded in positive territory most of the day and settled up +4.5 ticks at 117-020. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) an increase in the safe-haven demand for Treasuries after Fitch Ratings said it may cut Portugal's credit ratings, which fuels concern that a sovereign debt crisis may spread throughout the European Union, (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said that low interest rates are likely to be needed "for some time" as high unemployment lingers and inflation stays below the Fed's target, and (3) strong demand for the Treasury's $40 billion 3-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.13, the highest since Nov and well above than the 2.89 average of the past 10 auctions. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries after the US stock market rose to its highest level in the last 1-1/2 months, and (2) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $21 billion 10-year T-note auction on Wednesday.

• The dollar index this morning is stronger with the dollar/yen +0.42 yen and the euro/dollar +0.12 cents. The dollar index yesterday traded higher the entire day and finished with moderate gains. Bullish factors yesterday included (1) weakness in the euro and the pound after Fitch Ratings said implementation of Greece's deficit-cutting plans can't be taken for granted and that the UK needs to reduce its budget deficit at a faster rate because its debt profile has deteriorated "pretty sharply," and (2) the prediction from Citigroup that concerns over solvency in the Euro-Zone will linger and continue to pressure the euro. Bearish factors included (1) the statement from the European Commission that Greece is on course to meet its budget goals in 2010, which temporarily supported the euro, and (2) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after the US stock market rallied to its best levels in 1-1/2 months.

• April crude oil prices this morning are up +31 cents and Apr gasoline is +1.53 cents. Apr crude oil yesterday closed lower but well off of its worst levels when it settled down -$0.38 per barrel. Apr gasoline closed down -2.89 cents per gallon. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar which undercuts most commodities prices in dollars, (2) the unexpected decline in the Mar IBD/TIPP economic optimism, which raises questions about the sustainability of the economic recovery and energy demand, and (3) speculation that crude oil inventories will increase for the sixth consecutive week when the DOE reports weekly crude oil inventories on Wednesday. Bullish factors included (1) the rally in the US stock market to a 1-1/2 month high, which increases optimism in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) the action by the US Energy Department to raise its global oil consumption forecast for this year to 85.51 million bpd from last month's estimate of 85.3 million bpd, along with a hike in its crude oil price forecast for 2010 to $80.06 a barrel from last month's prediction of $79.78 a barrel. Expectations for Wednesday's weekly DOE inventory report are for a +2.0 million bbl build in crude oil stockpiles, an unchanged level of gasoline supplies, a -1.0 million bbl drop in distillate inventories, and the refinery capacity rate to remain unchanged at 81.9%.

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap) BF.B-Brown-Forman (BEST earnings consensus ($0.69), AEO-American Eagle Outfitters (0.33), NAV-Navistar International (0.85), FGP-Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. (1.10), ABVT-Abovenet (0.89), WES-Western Gas Partners, L.P. (0.30), GYMB-Gymboree (1.10), MTN-Vail Resorts (1.13), MW-Men's Warehouse (-0.14), CLNE-Clean Energy Fuels (-0.01), PLCE-Cildren's Place (1.03), JAS-Jo-Ann Stores (1.33), SMTC-Semtech (0.22).

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