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S & P - Sometimes The Best Decision Is No Decision


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Sunday Evening  20 June 2010

 The last article was on Tuesday evening, 15 June, and we concluded by saying there was no clear
direction. [See S & P - Review The Known Facts, click on
http://bit.ly/cYAeU6,
last paragraph.]

 When one cannot get a strong handle on a market, the best decision can be to make no decision and
wait for clarity, something to confirm that a move will continue, or reverse, and THEN look to take a
position in harmony with the prevailing direction.

 If we had any expectation, based on the small range, weaker volume weekly close from Friday, we would
look for a correction, second bar from the end.  The last bar on the chart is Sunday evening activity, with
price up 15 points.

 S&P W 20 Jun 10

 If we had any expectation, based on the daily chart where price on Friday's small range closed poorly,
[second bar from the end], plus there had been a lack of upside movement and a clustering of closes, we
expected a correction. 

 The last bar, again, is Sunday evening activity, and it demonstrates why it is so important to let the
market confirm its intent.  1130 remains as the half-way retracement and can be potential resistance,
so one need not be rushing in  believing the move is being missed.  That is a "fear" motivation; not one
based on a look at the known facts drawn from developing market activity.

 1141 to 1170 can be upside targets.  What we look for now is a weak pullback that may afford a low
risk entry on the buy side, if the current rally acts well.  The risk of "chasing"any market is for amateurs.
We will wait for an entry that makes sense.

S&P 20 Jun 10



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About the author


Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus.  He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity.  He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he managed money
in the cash bond market for a $5 billion pension fund using Peter Steidlmeyer’s Market Profile.

Proficient in Gann, Elliott Wave, Market Profile, etc, Mr Noonan no longer uses any of those technical procedures.  Instead, his primary focus is on developing market activity, relying solely on the information generated by the market itself, such as the interaction between  price and volume, and how they relate to important price levels in the market structure.  He incorporates proven market principles, such as knowledge of the trend, supply and demand, along with disciplined rules for to find developing high probability trade opportunities.

He can be reached by e-mail at his website: mn@edgetraderplus.com

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