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Your Morning Cup of Coffee
Monday, June 28, 2010
by Gary Kamen of TrendsinFutures.com
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Your morning cup of coffee This past week, July 2010 coffee opened at 16045 and closed the week at 16700. I find it insane when I hear people say "you do not need fundamentals." These people do not have a clue. Look where coffee was trading before June 10. This was before the Brazilian government announced that it will buy coffee to absorb supplies and support prices. Of course you can see for yourself what happened on June 11 on the charts below. Another fundamental that you will want to look at is the Commitment of Traders report. The Commercial positions in the COT are important as these are the "big money" hedgers and will be the ones to support an uptrend in the market. Just look at the weekly chart below to see for yourself how effective this group is in managing price. This past week the Commercials came in net short 38,441 contracts. Looking at the disaggregated report we find this number coming from the True Commercials (producers, processors, merchants, and users) at net short 73,604 contracts and the swap dealers (the five biggest, JP Morgan Chase, BofA, GS, Citi, and Wells Fargo) net long 35,163 contracts. If you did not catch this train email me, and I will send you a free sample of the CRB TrendTrader. See why on the daily chart below. Also, I will be giving a live webinar tomorrow June 29 at 3 p.m. central time for the people at the Grain Professional newsletter titled "Mind of the Markets". I will be covering grains and meats. You will also see first hand why I am expecting Soybeans to pull away form the rest of the grains, heading up. Click here to register for the free webinar.
All charts below provided by Pricecharts.com. For a two-week free trial click here!
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The numbers below represent the Commercial Net Traders positions taken from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission each Friday. You will find a 12-month high and low with the past 2 weeks of data. To see the past 52 weeks of commercial data please visit http://www.pricecharts.com/. Simply open Analysis under the Resource category at the top of the screen and click on the Commercial Tracker on the left side selection menu. You will find this to be a very interesting presentation of the commercial COT information. Commercial Net Tracker instructions This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
| | Commodity | 12-mo low | 12-mo hi | 25-Jun | 18-Jun | | Cattle (feed) | -3,350 | 5,766 | 3,470 | 3,395 | | Cattle (live) | -68,536 | 23,656 | -25,384 | -25,733 | | Hogs | -38,039 | 35,452 | -7,143 | -7,897 | | Corn | -133,074 | 111,962 | 42,679 | 61,787 | | Oats | -4,608 | 829 | -1,673 | -867 | | Soybeans | -88,183 | 56,797 | -886 | 15,273 | | Soybean meal | -63,631 | -6,350 | -63,631 | -59,661 | | Soybean oil | -55,029 | 20,995 | 5,274 | 12,275 | | Wheat | 17,351 | 82,654 | 69,613 | 74,161 | | Orange juice | -22,027 | -4,608 | -12,257 | -9,989 | | Coffee | -40,805 | -4,637 | -38,441 | -28,792 | | Cocoa | -49,897 | -19,889 | -28,174 | -27,917 | | Sugar | -249,405 | -105,509 | -113,028 | -112,659 | | Cotton | -58,803 | -10,836 | -32,907 | -29,702 | | British pound | -1,717 | 97,211 | 62,116 | 66,514 | | Canada dollar | -105,107 | -24,593 | -47,616 | -47,669 | | Euro FX | -75,540 | 124,494 | 81,220 | 74,991 | | Japanese yen | -66,127 | 92,866 | 4,081 | 16,585 | | Swiss franc | -37,877 | 27,482 | 17,733 | 23,460 | | US dollar index | -46,250 | 14,351 | -23,745 | -24,676 | | Mexican Peso | -118,008 | 19,803 | -40,198 | -32,094 | | Australian dollar | -102,706 | -12,381 | -15,594 | -13,037 | | S&P 500 | -83,827 | 17,319 | 16,511 | 2,625 | | T-note -10 yr | 15,365 | 356,573 | 183,140 | 197,237 | | T-bond -30 yr | 22,503 | 158,206 | 22,503 | 24,192 | | Eurodollar | -1,020,787 | 105,872 | -421,404 | -447,981 | | Crude oil | -152,994 | -11,509 | -41,239 | -27,938 | | Heating oil | -69,179 | -18,078 | -35,265 | -23,155 | | Unleaded gas | -91,597 | -26,743 | -48,426 | -36,825 | | Natural gas | 104,205 | 179,433 | 118,858 | 112,038 | | Copper | -30,974 | 21,618 | 1,148 | 1,039 | | Gold | -308,231 | -182,287 | -288,916 | -278,944 | | Platinum | -28,350 | -10,338 | -19,332 | -18,833 | | Silver | -66,004 | -33,201 | -55,576 | -53,781 |
To view the entire year of commercial data please visit http://www.pricecharts.com/.
| Fundamentals: Coffee prices catapulted to a two-1/4 year high on tight supplies as coffee inventories monitored by ICE futures have tumbled 27% this year to their lowest level since September 2002. Macquarie Group Ltd. predicts that the Arabica-coffee market will be in deficit in the current 2009-10 season even if Brazil produces a "bumper" harvest. A bearish factor is the USDA's June 18 estimate that global coffee production will climb 11% in the 2009-2010 season to a record 139.7 million bags.
Fundamental Outlook - Bullish - With dwindling coffee supplies, the fundamentals are turning bullish, although prices may fall in the near term from profit-taking after the sharp rally over the past two weeks. Strong consumption and lagging production should keep prices firm in the medium-term. Coffee production in 2009/10 fell 5.9% y/y to 120.6 mln bags (ICO), but production should rebound to 133-135 mln bags in 2010/11 (ICO). Brazil's 2010/11 (July-June) production will rise 23% y/y to 55.3 mln bags on their favorable 2-year cycle (USDA).
Coffee Supply/Demand USDA: 2010-11 world coffee production a record 139.7 mln bags (+11% vs. 2009-10's 125.7 mln bags); 2010-11 consumption 131.5 mln bags (+2.2% vs. 2009/10's 128.7 mln bags); 2010-11 world ending stocks at 36.3 mln bags (+16% vs. 2009-10's 31.3 mln bags); exports 103.4 mln bags (+5.2% vs. 2009/10's 98.3 mln bags); 2010-11stocks/use 27.6% (vs. 2009-10's 24.3%).
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Charts provided by http://www.pricecharts.com/
The Biggest Sin All Traders Make? Over the past 12 years I have talked with thousands of traders and the one trading "sin" they all make is ‘Letting a winner turn into a loser'. For many, they give up when this happens. Emotions run deep with this trading mistake. Email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and I will send you my "No Risk" Trading Strategy that when followed could virtually eliminate this mistake. Of course when you get into a trade they all have risk, but knowing how to manage the trade into a "no risk" trade can make all the difference to your trading success. Just email me at Gary@crbtrader.com with No Risk in the subject and I will send you my report. Please include your name and telephone number.
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About the author
With over twenty-five years of trading experience, Gary managed Futures Learning Center (a division of Futures Magazine) from 1997 until 2006. For thirteen of those years he has helped thousands of retail traders learn to trade to win and stop trading not to lose. For the past 7 years he has written Futures Magazine's popular weekly e-newsletter Market Pulse, as well as articles for the magazine. He has also been quoted in the Wall Street Journal. When Gary's group was sold to Commodity Research Bureau, he quickly realized the excellent stable of trading tools that CRB offered to traders. One tool Gary focused on was the Electronic Futures Trend Analyzer (later called TrendTrader) because it provided specific trade recommendations. Gary soon realized that when these trade recommendations were in agreement with his toolbox of trading indicators, including his analysis of the new Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report (COT), that these became high probability trades. That is when www.TrendsinFutures.com was created. With Trends in Futures you get specific trade recommendations with instant access to daily and weekly charts Gary created to get proper chart confirmations. Gary also wanted to make this educational so traders learn to trade to win and stop trading not to lose. So you also will have access to Gary’s video commentary on the trades Trends in Futures recommends, and video commentary on current open trades plus educational videos. Gary feels that bringing together the best of CRB with his trading experience that they have created the best trading tool for consistently catching all of the major market moves year after year. See for yourself how www.TrendsinFutures can make you more profitable by taking a 30-day free trial. “I am dedicated to your trading success. Are you?” Stop making your broker rich and take the 30-day free trial now! TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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