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S & P - Good News: A Rally!


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Wednesday Evening  7 July 2010

 Confirmation as to direction was resolved shortly after Wednesday's opening.  Focus was placed on a 10
minute and a 60 minute chart, and we used both to get long at 1034 after it was clear that the channel
down was broken when price closed intra day at 1031.  The extent of the rally and ease of movement to
the upside was surprising.  However, it occurred on less volume, and that tells us that it was more of an
absence of sellers, and a lot of short-covering.  Because of that, we opted to take profits on half of the
position at 1054, during the last half hour of trade.  Stops have been raised to make the position not only
risk free, but guaranteed profitable.

 Where to exit on the balance?  As always, it will depend upon developing market activity.  Price closed
in an area of resistance, and if there is an apparent reversal of some kind, we will step aside immediately.
How price reacts to the 1062 - 1075 band of resistance will provide some clues.

 Additional, important information will come in HOW price reacts on any decline.  If the ranges are smaller,
in general, and volume drops, it will tell us that there is still life in this developing counter-trend rally.  The
1100 area is still a longshot target.

 The overall trend remains down, so loyalty to the long side will not be strong because this is nothing more than an overdue correction.   For now, there is a free and profitable peak to the upside, and it came from
exercising patience and waiting for market activity to declare itself.

 No random walk theory here.

 

S&P D 7 Jul 10



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About the author


Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus.  He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity.  He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he managed money
in the cash bond market for a $5 billion pension fund using Peter Steidlmeyer’s Market Profile.

Proficient in Gann, Elliott Wave, Market Profile, etc, Mr Noonan no longer uses any of those technical procedures.  Instead, his primary focus is on developing market activity, relying solely on the information generated by the market itself, such as the interaction between  price and volume, and how they relate to important price levels in the market structure.  He incorporates proven market principles, such as knowledge of the trend, supply and demand, along with disciplined rules for to find developing high probability trade opportunities.

He can be reached by e-mail at his website: mn@edgetraderplus.com

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