MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, JULY 23, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
@
"Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. "
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you're able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you don't have the time, as many don‘t, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.EMOTION is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
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TRADING COSTS: All closed out positions include a trading cost of $49.00 round turn plus a maximum potential for exchange fees of $6.00. Most exchanges do not have total costs of that amount but to consider the maximum potential, it is included. Commission costs may also vary depending upon the service requested.
TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day session only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell September bonds. Sell 127.27 stop. Protective stop 129.08. Potential projection 124.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections suggesting an over bought market.
2. The weekly chart is forming a preliminary key reversal top.
3. On the daily chart the macd is negative suggesting a potential sell-off in spite of yesterday's rally.
4. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Long September mini crude oil from 75.60 up to 76.15.
METALS COMMENTS:
SEPT COPPER: In my last report I was favoring a potential rally from copper. It started to yesterday with follow through today up to 319.30. There should be more to it. It has to potential to 326.00. Closed 316.45, up 7.15.
AUG MINI GOLD: I lowered the stop this morning as all the markets were very strong and I suspected gold would soon follow. Also the chart was suggesting another attempt at holding around 1175.00. The stop was reached with a minor profit. Gold continues to be in a near term down trend since the high in late June. Just watching for now. Closed 1195.60, up 3.80.
Position: Short 1194.80 (7.16). Exit 1189.80 (7.22). Profit $110 (-comm.&fees).
SEPT MINI SILVER: I lowered the stop to right above the inside day that was formed on Tuesday. The stop was reached yesterday at almost a break even prior to cost. It rallied up to the 20 day ma today and stopped. Just watching for now. Closed 18.120, up .317.
Position: Short 17.799 (7.16). Exit 17.810 (7.21). Loss $66 (+comm&fees).
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
SEPT MINI CRUDE OIL: Switching to the Sept. contract. It triggered a buy yesterday and immediately sold off. It held at the 20 day ma. Today it started to rally and closed over the 79.000 resistance. Move stops from 75.60 up to 76.15. Closed 79.30, up 2.52.Position: Long 78.150 (6.21).
Projection: 82.00.
SEPT MINI JAPANESE YEN: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. Both long term charts are in previous resistance territory. In spite of the buy on the daily chart, the macd is negative. Best to just watch. Closed 114.98, down 6.
SEPT SWISS FRANC: Stops were reached last night. It rallied up to previous resistance and stopped. The long term charts are in resistance. Just watching. Closed 95.94, up 73.
Position: Short 94.87 (7.19). Exit 95.82 (7.22). Loss $1242.50 (+comm&fees)
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: After a two day rally, it sold off again today. The low made last week at 82.250 has not been taken out. That is the number to watch. I continue to see the potential to 82.000. It can easily continue to have small rallies in the process. The monthly chart suggests the potential to 81.500 and even 81.000. Too early to tell. Closed 82.782, down .858.
SEPT MINI EUROCURRENCY: The key for this market is getting over 130.000. So far that has stopped it. Just looking at the charts, it appears it may try for it again. Just watching. Closed 128.930, up .150.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: The daily chart is trading into a pennant - which means it could break out either way. Not surprising, the long term charts are in contradiction. Near term it looks as though the cd could test 97.00 again and even do better. Closed 96.40, up 119.
SEPT AUSSIE: It was pushing up against the 88.00 resistance for well over a week. It finally sold off and tried again. It has succeeded. I have pointed that feature out many times. Whenever a market keeps pushing up against a resistance and then sells off, be careful. It may be just setting up to try again from a lower level. For some reason a market needs to do that so that it can get through that resistance finally. Why, I don't know but I have seen it too many times to ignore it. Today it rallied to 88.99. This wave up has a potential to 90.00. Closed 92.125, up .0615.
SEPT BONDS: I tried to sell bonds yesterday. They rallied instead. Today was an inside day. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 128.03, down .24.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.
