MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 28, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
@
"Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. "
The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you're able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you don't have the time, as many don‘t, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.
EMOTION is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline. YOU'RE MISSING SOMETHING! Receive not only the Market Update directly via email but also the additional Trade Alerts on alternate days by going to my website
www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com and registering. You can also select from my free booklets on trading to help you learn more!ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT: I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader when you open an account with me. Dealing directly with me - learn while you trade. Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation. I welcome hearing from you!
TRADING COSTS: All closed out positions include a trading cost of $49.00 round turn plus a maximum potential for exchange fees of $6.00. Most exchanges do not have total costs of that amount but to consider the maximum potential, it is included. Commission costs may also vary depending upon the service requested.
TRADE ALERTS: Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed for the day only (not the night session). They are all placed in the electronic markets.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell November mini beans. Sell 959 1/2 stop. Protective stop 973 1/2. Potential projection 930.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, beans rallied to previous resistance and have started to sell off.
2. The weekly chart triggered a sell signal this week.
3. On the daily chart, beans formed a key reversal top on the 16th. That is still intact.
4. On the daily chart, beans formed a 1,2,3 top formation that was confirmed yesterday. Follow through is still required.
5. On the daily chart, beans have a previous sell signal that is still intact.
6. On the daily chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections suggesting an over bought market.7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell September coffee. Sell 162.95 stop. Protective stop 166.60. Potential projection 152.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, coffee rallied to the same resistance area that formed a major top in 2008. It has started to sell off from that level.
2. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. Both the weekly and daily macd is negative.
4. On the daily chart, coffee has been in a downtrend since the 6.24 high. It has had two waves down. The recent rally could be the set up for a third wave down.
5. On the daily chart, a sell signal would push coffee back under the 20 day ma.
6. The daily chart triggered a sell today.
CHANGE IN OPEN STOPS:
Short December meal from 285.90 down to 280.70.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
DEC CORN: It formed a double bottom today. It is deep in support but that doesn't stop it from selling off more. The reason - it has been so weak in spite of the strength in the beans. If that double bottom is not taken out and it rallies back over 380 support, we could be looking at a bottom to this correction. It would need to confirm holding the 380 support. Closed 377, down 1.
DEC MINI WHEAT: It is very volatile. It triggered a sell yesterday and quickly negated it today. That is the second time a recent sell signal has been almost immediately negated. That suggests there could be more to the rally but that the market is getting near over bought. Many times when a market is topping, it will try to sell off, as wheat has, but not succeed. It will then try from a higher level, as it did. The value of this action is that it tells you the rally could be close to over. Today was a huge outside day. Just watching. Closed 627, up 6.
NOV MINI SOYBEANS: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 965 1/2, down 1/4.
DEC MEAL: It triggered a sell yesterday from Friday's inside day. It sold off to 275.80 yesterday and has held at the 20 day ma since. Move stops from 285.90 down to 280.70. Closed 278.30, up .80.
Position: Short 279.90 (7.26).
Projection: 272.00.
DEC BEAN OIL: I raised the stop yesterday to 39.45 and it was reached today. The reason I raised it was because it had formed an inside day that triggered a sell yesterday. It has continued to follow through today with a low down at 39.23. Just watching. Closed 39.29, down .27.
Position: Long 39.33 (7.21). Exit 39.40 (7.27). Loss $13 (-comm&fees).
MEAT COMMENTS:
DEC HOGS: I raised the stop and it was reached yesterday. The market continued to sell off down to 72.77. It did rally today up to 74.02 and formed an inside day. Just watching. Closed 73.95, up .92.
Position: Long 73.55 (7.22). Exit 73.97 (7.26). Profit $113 (-comm&fees).
DEC CATTLE: They triggered a sell today and sold off to 95.55. Keep stops at 95.62. Closed 95.75, down .07.
Position: Short 95.62 (7.27).
Projection: 93.75.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
DEC COTTON: Last time I was hoping for some follow through in the rally to short at a later date. It has followed through and reached 76.94 today. It is in some resistance but the bigger resistance is up at 77.95 - 78.00. Watching closely. Closed 76.70, up .21.
SEPT ORANGE JUICE: A huge outside day triggered a buy today. It is in resistance but it could easily try for the 150.00 again. Just watching for now. Closed 146.70, up 90.
SEPT COFFEE: In my last Update I mentioned the start of a rally and that it could possibly set coffee up for a third wave down. That could be what is occurring. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 163.75, down 1.85.
SEPT COCOA: It rallied up to the 20 day ma today and backed off. It appears to be setting up for the same behavior it has exhibited three times before. It holds in the 29.00 support area and consolidates there for a couple of weeks. It then rallies, making a new high each time somewhere between 31.00 and 32.00. Then it sells off, giving back the entire gain in one day. Then the process starts all over again. Just watching. Closed 29.80, up 7.
OCT SUGAR: On Friday it met my projection and started to sell off. I took profit. It has since rallied up to 19.05 today and then formed a key reversal top. We may be looking at a near term top. Closed 18.42, down .20.
Position: Long 17.21 (7.7). Exit 18.44 (7.23). Profit $1322.60 (-comm&fees).
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. Actual results may vary.









