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S & P - A Step Behind Is Better


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Tuesday Evening  27 July 2010

 In our previous article, we said S & P - When There Is No Clarity, Simply Wait, [click on http://bit.ly/chb7rB]
Tuesday's activity may not have brought the picture into a clearer focus.  Price was higher, the low was
higher, and the close was higher, barely.  The range was smaller and volume was not all that great.

 A few observations worth noting are how the bars at the high of this rally are smaller in range, and
that indicates a lack of demand, [a lack of supply as well],  because buyers are unable to extend the
ranges higher.  Volume on both of the last two bars declined, supporting this view.

 The close was barely higher on Tuesday, and it was about at mid-range on the bar.  From that, we can
deduce that there were sellers present, certainly at the higher end, and the 60 minute chart will illustrate
it as a fact.  There is another important observation that may be key, and we will leave it to you to see if
you can spot it.

 S&P D 27 Jul 10

 The three large red bars, on the 27th, represent intra day session activity, and it is apparent that the first
two red bars reflect a fast move down from the day's high at 1117.  The third red bar drove price to the
low of the day, but the close was high end for that bar, indicating buyers stepped up in support.  The
remainder of the day was spent in a narrow trading range between 1113 and 1107.  Ignore the last five
tiny bars at the end of the chart.  That is after hour market activity.

 Is the picture any clearer after another day's transactions?  Hmmmm, not really.  It looks a bit negative,
judging from the intra day activity, but in the end, price did not break.  Where were the sellers?!

 What to do?

 As was said in the previous article, clarity will appear, so wait.  It is better to be one step behind the
market, letting it show its hand, than to try and be a step ahead of the market, not knowing which way it
will unfold.  Too many want to get a jump on what the market may do, instead of waiting for confirmation.
There may be some give up in price by waiting, but at least the market direction will be clearer.

 Does it always work out that way?  No.  We took a position in the Euro when the hourly chart closed
above resistance, this morning, confirming an upside breakout.  It turned out to be a false one and
cost 48 pips, in the process.  What was known right away, at least in this circumstance, was that the
breakout was false, and there was no further need to hold the position, "hoping" or "wondering" if it
would work out.  The immediate feedback from developing market activity eliminated the risk of
overstaying in a position.  That knowledge is a plus for being in what turned out to be a losing trade.

 It is hard to buy a "creeping" market, one that rallies in smaller ranges and lighter volume, along with
identifiable resistance overhead.  The 1117 area high may turn out to be very important, as the market
is susceptible to a decline.  However, until sellers take a stance, price will drift higher.  1130 is the next
likely resistance area.

 Best to let the  market declare its intent, either by rallying, or by selling off with increased volume and
wider ranges to the downside.  At potential resistance, and so close to more at 1130, one should not
"chase" the market by going long.  Better to wait for a correction to gain a better price location and
reduce risk exposure.

 Waiting for clarity, one step behind.

 

S&P 60m 27 Jul 10



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About the author


Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus.  He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity.  He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he managed money
in the cash bond market for a $5 billion pension fund using Peter Steidlmeyer’s Market Profile.

Proficient in Gann, Elliott Wave, Market Profile, etc, Mr Noonan no longer uses any of those technical procedures.  Instead, his primary focus is on developing market activity, relying solely on the information generated by the market itself, such as the interaction between  price and volume, and how they relate to important price levels in the market structure.  He incorporates proven market principles, such as knowledge of the trend, supply and demand, along with disciplined rules for to find developing high probability trade opportunities.

He can be reached by e-mail at his website: mn@edgetraderplus.com

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