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Softs Market Commentary


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October sugar closed down 20 points at 18.42 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking after hitting a fresh four-month high early on yesterday. Sugar bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still
in a gentle 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 20.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 17.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 18.66 cents and then at yesterday's high of 19.05 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 18.25 cents and then at 18.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

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September coffee closed down 185 points at 163.75 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and were pressured by lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index. Coffee bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 169.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 155.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 165.00 cents and then at yesterday's high of 166.55 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 163.20 cents and then at 162.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

September cocoa closed up $26 at $2,999 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,100. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,900. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $3,026 and then at $3,050. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $2,954 and then at $2,925.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December cotton closed up 21 points at 76.70 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit another fresh three-week high. As has been the case in recent months, just when the market was poised to see fresh, strong downside pressure, the bulls come roaring back. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at 76.50 cents and then at yesterday's low of 76.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 76.94 cents and then at 77.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September orange juice closed up 105 points at $1.4685 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit another fresh three-week high. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at $1.5000. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.4000. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.4770 and then at $1.4900. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 1.4555 and then at $1.4400.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

September lumber futures closed down $7.70 at $200.30 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low again yesterday. The lumber bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $215.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $183.00. First resistance is seen at $202.50 and then at $205.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $200.00 and then at the July low of $197.30.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

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About the author


Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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