MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, JULY 30, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed during the day only (and not at night). All trades are placed in the electronic markets only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3. All orders are good for that day only.
Sell September Canadian. Sell 96.02 stop. Protective stop 97.05. Potential projection 93.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, the cd is triggering a preliminary sell signal this month.
2. The weekly chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart, the cd continues to trade under the 20 day ma. Rally attempts continue to fail to get over that indicator. That is negative.
4. On the daily chart, the cd rallied up to the downtrend line of the pennant yesterday and sold off aggressively.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
METALS COMMENTS:
SEPT COPPER: Last time it was acting a bit over bought. Such is not the case as it has finally started moving again and is now almost to 330.00. Just looking at the chart, once it broke out over 310.00, it had established under it a base sufficient enough to get it to 350.00, at least. But you know what breaking out of a congestion means. A market does tend to go back and test that breakout. Don't be surprised if copper does that. Closed 329.00, up 4.45.
AUG MINI GOLD: I had lowered the stop and it was reached today with a profit. Gold was really struggling to hold the 1160.00 support and almost didn't pull it off. Today it finally started to rally and reached 1169.20. If it can get to 1180.00, that might be an area to short again. Just watching. Closed 1168.40, up 8.00.
Position: Short 1194.80 (7.16). Exit 1167.50 (7.29). Profit $845.90 (-comm&fees)
Projection: 1160.00.
SEPT MINI SILVER: It formed an inside day today and is holding the 17.600 support. It could rally but recent rallies have been contained by the 20 day ma. It has literally kept a "lid" on the market. If that be the case, and it can rally, it could try for 18.000 but, unless something dramatic happens in the market place, that should fizzle out the rally. Just watching. Closed 17.617, up .176.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
SEPT MINI CRUDE OIL: The daily chart is not showing anything. Resorting to the long term charts, the monthly chart is triggering a buy this month. For this market to have a strong rally, it needs to get over 80.00. The daily chart triggered a sell yesterday, but, so far, it is not following through. Just watching. Closed 78.36, up 1.37.
SEPT MINI JAPANESE YEN: I tried to short it. It rallied instead. It triggered a buy instead and looks headed for 116.00 again. The weekly triggered a sell this week. The monthly is in resistance. Just watching. Closed 115.06, up .63.
SEPT SWISS FRANC: I tried to short the Swiss. It rallied to resistance and has made a new high today at 96.45. Based on today's action on the long term charts, it is now pushing into resistance around 96.50-96.60. Tough call. Just watching. Closed 95.95, up 1.38.
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX: Today it reached the 20 day ma on the monthly chart. As I stated last time, there could be more to this sell-off. I still see the potential for 81.00. Closed 81.750, down .560.
SEPT MINI EUROCURRENCY: Last time it was still attempting to get over 130.000. It has finally done so and made a high today at 131.060. Near term it should reach 132.000. That is the first resistance from where it is now. The bigger resistance is up at 134.000. Closed 130.760, up .97.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR: I have been trying to short it. My price has not been reached. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 96.49, up .22.
SEPT AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: There isn't much change here. Both long term charts continue to have buy signals. On the daily chart it continues to try to get over 90.00. Getting over 90.00 could push the aussie up to 92.00 plus. Closed 89.70, up .99.
SEPT BONDS: Stops were reached yesterday with a profit. They have been under the 20 day ma on the daily chart for almost the entire week. Long term they are still negative. Watching closely to short again. Closed 126.28, up .01.
Position: Short 127.27 (7.23). Exit 126.28 (7.28). Profit $913.75 (-comm&fees).
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
