MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, SEPT. 3, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. 

HOLIDAY SCHEDULE:  On Friday globex markets close at 3:15 versus standard 4:00.  Most will open regular time on Sunday but close early on Monday between 12:00 (currencies & financials) and 12:15 (metals & energies).  Bear in mind, the exchanges may change this at a moment's notice.  I will not be in the office on Monday.

GRAINS.  BEARISH OR BULLISH?  U.S. fundamentals are bearish.  Crop production this year is anticipated as huge and will most likely come in as such.  A record crop and yield for corn is on the table.  Harvested bean acres are at a record high.  U.S. wheat stocks are at 10 year highs. 
Flip the coin and you have:  World consumption of wheat has exceeded consumption 6 out of the past 8 yrs.  For corn 6 out of the past 7 yrs.  Corn world ending stocks/usage rate is the lowest since 1960.  Bean stockpiles - the lowest in decades. 
But the real potential key to grains are exports.  It is well known that several major grain growing countries have had some real setbacks in their grain production this year due to drought, flood, etc.
Consequently, the USDA has projected record exports in 2010 of 14 bb due to the above problems plus higher demand by the developing world.
Agricultural exports are projected at $107.5 bln this fiscal year - the highest level ever following the 2008 record $115.3 bln.  For 2011 the estimate is $113 bln.
In 2008 beans reached 1654, wheat 1334, corn 779.  I would assume the record exports had a hand in those price levels. 
Technically, as I have been suggesting for some time now, grains seem to be setting up for major rallies.  This may be more in response to the 2011 projections at this point as the move to reflect the record 2008 export situation started the year before.  At that time all three grains took off at or before harvest.

EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.

The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you are able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you do not have the time, as many don't, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.

YOU'RE MISSING SOMETHING!  The Market Update is published on Tuesday and Thursday.  On alternate days I also publish a Trade Alert that gives suggested trades as well.  To sign up for both and have the convenience of receiving all my information via email. visit my website:  http://www.tradingfuturesmarkets.com/, register and submit.  And you may want to request some of my free trading booklets too!

ESTABLISHING A TRADING ACCOUNT: I offer brokerage services and personal assistance for every level of trader.  Open your account with me and deal directly with me - learn while you trade. Feel free to call or email me at any time without obligation. I welcome hearing from you!

TRADING COSTS: All closed out positions include a trading cost of $49.00 round turn plus a maximum potential for exchange fees of $6.00. Most exchanges do not have total costs of that amount but to consider the maximum potential, it is included. Commission costs can be less if full service is not required. 

TRADE ALERTS: 

Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1.  They are placed during the day only (and not at night).   All trades are placed in the electronic markets only.
2.  They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis.  That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short.
3.  All orders are good for that day only.

Buy November orange juice.  Buy 141.65 stop.  Protective stop 138.70.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart, oj is in support going back to early 2008.
2.  The weekly chart triggered a preliminary buy signal this week.
3.  On the weekly chart, oj has rallied back over the 20 day ma.
4.  On the daily chart, it has rallied over the 20 day ma.
5.  On the daily chart, it is back over the 140.00 support.
6.  Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

GRAIN COMMENTS:     

DEC CORN:  Another new high today by 1/4 cent.  On the daily chart it appears to be in the process of a third wave up.  It will run into resistance at 450.  It has the base under it to get through it while it consolidated at a lower level for four months.  Based on that consolidation, projections are much higher to approximately 600.  Closed 447 1/2, up 3/4.

DEC MINI WHEAT:   It triggered a buy this morning and then did nothing.  It did close above the 20 day ma which is positive.  It needs follow through now.  Keep stops at 685.  Closed 713 3/4, up 5.
Position:  Long 720 (9.2).
Projection:  800.

NOV BEANS:  Last time I suggested in order to establish a third wave down they needed first to close under 1000.  They reached 1000 3/4 today but then rallied.  The charts are in conflict in terms of near term potential.  Either way, longer term they continue to suggest higher prices.  Just watching.  Closed 1009, up 3 1/2.

DEC MEAL:  After closing under the 20 day ma yesterday, meal closed back over it today.  That is positive.  Closed 296.10, up 2.50.

DEC BEAN OIL:  Stops were reached this morning.  The low was 39.82.  It then rallied and closed back over the 40.00 support.  Waiting for more confirmation to go long again.  Closed 40.20, up 8.
Position:  Long 40.35 (8.27).  Exit 39.85 (9.2).  Loss $355. (+comm.&fees),

 MEAT COMMENTS: 

DEC HOGS:  In my last Update I suggested that a rally could be an opportunity to short again.  Nothing has changed regarding that.  Long term the situation is still negative.  A rally will run into resistance about 3.50 points higher - assuming they follow through that much.  They did get over the 20 day ma today and may try for 75.00.  Closed 74.12, up 1.25.

DEC CATTLE:  Stops were reached this morning.  The double top was negated and cattle rallied to 101.60 on the daily chart.  Long term they seem headed back to the 100.20 double top.  That is long term resistance but if they get over that hurtle, they appear to be headed for 105.00.  Closed 101.32, up .72.
Position:  Short 99.77 (8.27).  Exit 101.40 (9.2).  Loss $707 (+comm.&fees).

SOFTS: 

DEC COTTON: It appears headed for the 2008 high of 92.86 on the monthly chart.  On the monthly chart, the current major wave up has potential to 93.30.  On the daily chart, the current wave up has exceeded projections.  However, if it does sell off near term, the pattern since the July low has been minor sell-offs even if they take over a week to complete.  Today's high was 89.91.  That is pretty much at the 90.00 resistance that was formed in August 2008.  Closed 89.49, up 2.08.

NOV ORANGE JUICE:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 141.05, down .95.

DEC COFFEE:   I have leaned towards a sell-off but the inside day formed on Tuesday triggered a buy.  It now appears headed for the contract high at 188.65.  If it can follow through, the current wave up on the daily chart has potential to 197.40.  That is into resistance territory going back to mid 1997.  At that time it did get over 200.00 (210.00 approximately) but could not sustain it.  Closed 184.85, up 2.50.

DEC COCOA:  Since the last report it has had two inside days back to back.  I still have to lean towards a potential rally even though it sure doesn't seem interested in doing anything.  Also, it has had a sell-off of close to 5.00 points without a recognizable rally.  Just watching.  Closed 27.35, down 22.

OCT SUGAR:  I attempted to short it yesterday.  It rallied instead.  It has finally succeeded in closing over the 20.00 resistance area with follow through.  It will run into some resistance around 21.25 with stronger resistance up at 22.00 - 22.50.  Now that it has the 20.00 resistance out of the way it will probably try for the 22.00 area.  Closed 20.81, up 32.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade. 

Actual results may vary.