Tuesday, September 7-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

This week should be an extra important trading week
for many markets. U.S. and European traders are
back from summertime vacations and the weekend U.S.
holiday, and should be fully focused on markets.
It's my bias that with traders more fully focused
on markets, the economic problems in the U.S. and
Europe will move to the front burner for traders.
That would be bearish for stocks and bullish for
U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high
of 1,107.10 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at Friday's low
of 1,086.30 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,878.00 and then at 1,890.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,850.00 and then at
Friday's low of 1,834.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Friday's low of 10,352 and then more
stops just below support at 10,350. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
Friday's high of 10,440 and then at 10,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132 15/32 and then at Friday's
high of 132 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at 132 even and then at 131 16/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high
133 22/32--second pivot point resistance
133 2/32--4-day moving average
132 19/32--previous day's high
133 16/32--9-day moving average
132 19/32--first pivot point resistance
131 15/32--pivot point
131 15/32--previous day's close
132 18/32--18-day moving average
130 12/32--previous day's low
130 12/32--first pivot point support
129 8/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
124 4/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 124.24.0 and then at
125.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at 124.00.0 and then at last
week's low of 123.20.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 16/32--second pivot point resistance
124 31/32--9-day moving average
124 24/32--4-day moving average
124 30/32--previous day's high
124 29/32--18-day moving average
124 24/32--first pivot point resistance
124 6/32--pivot point
124 --previous day's close
123 20/32--previous day's low
123 14/32--first pivot point support
122 28/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 6/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading. Bulls were fading and needed to show some
fresh power. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 83.00 and then
at the overnight high of 83.29. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.60 and
then at last week's low of 82.23. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today.
Trading has turned choppy recently. In October
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $73.50 and then at $74.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $72.67 and then at $72.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading, on a
corrective pullback from solid gains last Friday.
The bulls have some good upside near-term technical
momentum, but the key "outside markets" are in a
bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S.
dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are weaker. This week, more
early harvest progress reports from the U.S. will
garner trader attention. Very early reports are
seeing disappointing corn yeilds and bigger-than-
expected soybean yields.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.