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Chartwhiz Technical Outlook: Tuesday 9.7.10


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Crude Oil: The Bulls defended the 7300 Support level last week but failed to maintain settlements above 7500 as sellers stepped in ahead of double top Resistance at the 7544-7560 week highs.  Prices slipped 42 cents on Friday to close at 7460.  Overnight action opened below the Pivot and Settlement and is sharply lower as of 8:30am with a Bearish outlook for the primary session.

Sellers will use listed Resistance zones for shorting opportunities today initially selling 7370-7400 X Resistance with a suggested stop above 7410.  If Stopped, wait to scale into new shorts against 7440-7460 XX to 7500 XXX.  Action below the 7300 level is expected to generate sell offs to 7250 XX and 7200-7150 XXX Support targets with a moderate chance for a washout to 7100-7076 3Q lows.

On the upside, buyers can lightly scalp against listed Supports using tight Stops of 5 to 10 cents.  If we begin to stabilize above the 7320-7300 X Support level, the Bulls will likely counter the overnight move targeting the 7400 to 7500 range.  Trade above 7500 is Bullish on today's trade for a spike back to Sept and last week's highs at 7544-7560 XXXX extension target.

Crack Spreads: Both cracks are favoring a Bullish outlook for Tuesday as they look to maintain breakout trends from last week.  Both are higher overnight as the front crude spread shows weakness with Heat leading ahead of the open.

The Heat Crack has attained our 1250-1260 objective overnight and is likely to back off in early trading presenting buying opportunities against 1215 X Support.  We're looking for 1215 to hold as a clear indication of higher trade while trade above 1260 today sparks the next Bull leg to 1300-1315 XX to 1350 XXX objectives.

On the downside, sellers into the 1250-1260 X Resistance range overnight can Stop out above 1265 with an objective at 1215 X Support.  Trade below 1215 alerts for a short term down spike to 1190-1180 XX to 1165-1150 XXX Support targets.

The Gas Crack is set to Gap up from Friday's high at 615 with a Bullish bias on outside day patterns.  Overall, maintaining prices above 615 should garner strength to take out last week's Sept. high at 645 X Resistance and target 660 XX to 700 XXX upper objectives.

On the downside, sellers can look for a potential double top to develop at 645 X Resistance for shorting opportunities using the 615 X Support point as a target.  Trade below 615 alerts for sideways consolidation to develop working into congestion below at 602-585 XX Pivot Support which will offer another buying opportunity for the Bulls.  Trade below 585 is the Bearish turnover today targeting 560-535 XXX Support.

NG: Natural gas prices spiked higher on Friday on short covering fueled by storm threats ahead of the holiday weekend reaching a high at 3946 before closing at 3939 with gains of 18.8 cents. 

As the storm track has dissipated, prices have retreated with overnight action setting the tone for a Bearish primary session outlook on trade remaining below 3844-3878 X Pivot Resistance. The Bears still need to crack the 3800 X Support level to gain solid control today sparking drives to 3757-3755 XX Support to 3697-3693 XXX Support at 2010 lows.

On the upside, buyers can scalp against the 3800 X Support level using 3844-3878 X Resistance to cover.  Trade above 3878 shifts tides in favor of the Bulls to retest last week's 3946 high at XX with a strong potential to rally to new monthly highs targeting 3985-4035 XXX Resistance range. 

Gold: Gold prices have moved into a sideways flagging pattern with overnight action slightly lower after last week's triple top highs at the 12550-12560 range capped advances.  Current patterns suggest indecision with a Flat to Lower outlook for Tuesday's session.

We're anticipating initial action today to chop around inside the 12450 to 12511 range with minor scalping opportunities on both sides.  Trade pressing below 12450 alerts for lower trade to prevail with objectives below at 12400-12392 XX and 12360-12335 XXX Supports.

Upside action maintaining the 12485-12453 X Support zone could garner strength to generate a retest of last week's highs at 12556-12565 XX Resistance.  Trade above 12565 is expected to set off a breakout leg from congestion targeting the Spot record highs inside today's 12615-12648 XXX Resistance range.

S&P: S&P futures finished strong into the Labor Day weekend on Friday to end the summer on a positive note closing above the 1100 mark for the first time since Aug 10.  However, a congestion Resistance web above at 1102-1105 has prompted profit taking into the new post summer week with overnight action signaling for a Bearish session. 

Failures to trade above 1099-1100 X Pivot/100 DMA Resistance confirms weakness while trade below 1095 sets off drives to lower targets at 1091-1090 XX to 1086-1084 XXX Supports.

On the upside, a flip back above 1100 looks to retest key 20-week and 5-month downtrends at 1102-1105 XX Resistance.  However, only trade above 1108 today signals strength for a run to the 200 DMA at 1113 XXX.  Multiple settlements above 1105 this week will have overall Bullish implications with extended targets at 1120-1123 to 3Q highs at 1128.



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Chartwhiz.com, Inc. was founded in 2000 by a combination of pit traders and analyst on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Our research provides technical and fundamental services for future traders worldwide. Our team developed a simple and extremely accurate format to identify key technical prices in the volatile futures markets. Chartwhiz specializes in the Outright Crude oil, Heating oil, Gasoline , Natural Gas and Gold markets in addition to the Spot Cracks and Spread markets.

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