MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 8, 2010)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.
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TRADE ALERTS:
Important information regarding placement of trade alert orders:
1. They are placed during the day only (and not at night). All trades are placed in the electronic markets only.
2. They are placed on a buy stop or sell stop basis. That means the market must rally up to the stop price to go long and/or sell off down to the stop price to short. "The use of a stop-loss or stop-limit order will not necessarily limit your losses to intended amounts or guarantee an execution at a specific price, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders."
3. All entry orders are good for that day only.
Buy October mini crude oil. Buy 74.725 stop. Protective stop 72.600. Potential projection 80.00.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
2. On the monthly chart, the recent sell-off held at the 20 day ma and the up trend formed since the early 2009 low.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal bottom two weeks ago to the recent major sell-off - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
4. The daily has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
5. On the daily chart, crude formed a key reversal bottom in late August that is still intact.
6. On the daily chart, a buy signal would push crude over the 20 day ma.
7. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Sell December mini Eurocurrency. Sell 126. 630 stop. Protective stop 129.250. Potential projection 122.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month to the recent rally - suggesting a trend change from up to down. It did so at the 130.000 major resistance level.
2. The weekly chart is forming a preliminary key reversal top this week.
3. On the weekly chart the macd is negative. On the monthly it has been for quite some time.
4. On the daily chart the recent rally reached the uptrend line formed since the June low and backed off from it. It violated that uptrend in late August and has not been able to get back over it - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
5. On the daily chart, the fx sold off under the 20 day ma today. That is negative.
6. On the daily chart, the macd is turning negative.
METALS COMMENTS:
DEC COPPER: Last time I pointed out that it was testing the 350.00 resistance and getting over that suggested a run to 380.00 on the daily chart. So far, that's not in the game plan so to speak. It sold off today to 342.00. As is common with markets, it may be doing this to set up for another "run" at the 350.00 resistance. For some reason, if they back off and try from a lower price level, they then succeed in getting over a problem area. It is too early to tell but the macd on the daily is turning negative. Right now the key is holding 340.00. It that doesn't happen, expect lower copper prices. The 350.00 level is major resistance on the monthly. That explains the recent struggle on the daily chart. Closed 347.05, down 2.95.
DEC MINI GOLD: The number to watch with gold currently is the key reversal top made on June 21 at 1270.60. It has not been taken out to date. The market is in the process of now challenging it. When it was formed in June, it challenged it a week later and failed. It was then that gold sold off to 1159.30 in late July. It is very close to that high now but does have more support under it to push through that key reversal top. If it does, gold could be starting another wave up. Projections for that would be around 1375.00. If it fails to take that high out this time, that does not bode well for the gold. Closed 1259.30, up 8.20.
DEC MINI SILVER: Last time I said it appeared headed for 20.000. It has reached that price area. It also took out the key reversal top made on May 13 at 19.915. Silver had been consolidating between 18.500 down to 17.500 from early July through late August. It has broken out of that consolidation and does have the momentum to test the high made in 2008 at 21.440. The current problem is that it formed a key reversal top today and outside day. You could see a near term sell off. Closed 19.914, down .035.
ENERGY, CURRENCIES & BONDS: Switching to December currencies.
OCT MINI CRUDE OIL: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 74.09, down .51.
DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: The contract high (119.73) for the Dec. contract was taken out today. The new high 119.87. It is fast approaching the 120.00 area that was resistance in 1995. The projections for the current wave up on the monthly continue to suggest 124.55. Just watching. Closed 119.49, up .95.
DEC SWISS FRANC: It persists on holding the 98.00 support and is now working on the 99.00 resistance. It still gives every indication of heading for 100.00. Closed 99.19, up .88.
DEC DOLLAR INDEX: Its rally today was quite strong. Plus it is now back over the 20 day ma. It suggests to me that it is going to hold 82.000. If that be the case, we should get a rally from here that reaches for 85.500 ultimately. The 82.000 level is strong support going back to 2005. The key reversal bottom on the monthly that was formed last month is still intact. The recent sell-off could not reach the 20 day ma on the monthly. That is positive. Back to the daily - the up trend since the August low is still intact. It did gap up today and could try to fill that gap (82.450). Closed 83.139, up .754.
DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: After its huge sell-off in mid August, it managed a feeble rally up to 129.160. The recent rally got to 129.130 and today it has had the most aggressive sell-off since that time. That appears to be a tough resistance area for the fx. It is also back under the 20 day ma after managing to get over it for only two days. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 126.970, down .177.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: This currency seems in transition. The daily appears to have had a recent rally to set up for a third wave down near term. It held at the 20 day ma today during today's sell-off. The monthly is suggesting a market that has topped out from the rally that started in early 2009. It has been struggling to hold 95.00 support (basis the Sept.) but has formed two key reversal tops and just goes sideways in a range. The weekly has triggered a preliminary buy this week but is struggling at the 20 day ma. The market on that chart looks very "heavy." Watching closely to short. Closed 95.28, down .75.
DEC AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Near term this market looks over bought but long term the monthly is suggesting the potential for more rally. It has a buy signal and the macd is suggesting the same. The weekly shows that it is pushing into heavy resistance so any further rally probably will be a set up for a short. Just watching. Closed 90.17, down 42.
SEPT BONDS: They triggered a sell last Friday and sold off to 131.25. Today they are taking it back. The are back over the 20 day ma as well. Keep stops at 135.04. Closed 134.11, up 1.15.
Position: Short 132.28 (9.3).
Projection: 129.00.
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost. Not all trades suggested are taken. Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.
Actual results may vary.
