Thursday, September 9-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It's still early September, but so far the stock
market has held up fairly well in what is
historically a poor-performing month for the stock indexes. My bias is that if
the stock indexes can hold up well through next
week, then they will also likely hold up fairly
well during following next six weeks. Any time the
majority of traders and investors expect a market
to perform a certain way during a certain
timeframe, it's a decent bet it won't happen.--Jim.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,107.10
and then at the August high of 1,127.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,087.50 and then at 1,075.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Wednesday's high of
1,888.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,872.75 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,852.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,325 and then more stops just below
support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,405 and then at
last week's high of 10,440. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 132 even and then at the overnight high of 132
18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131
16/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high set
134 --second pivot point resistance
133 12/32--previous day's high
133 5/32--9-day moving average
133 4/32--first pivot point resistance
132 27/32--18-day moving average
132 15/32--pivot point
132 9/32--4-day moving average
132 7/32--previous day's close
131 27/32--previous day's low
131 19/32--first pivot point support
130 30/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
124 16/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at 124.16.0 and then at the
overnight high of 124.23.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 124.00.0
and then at 123.20.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 13/32--second pivot point resistance
125 3/32--previous day's high
124 29/32--first pivot point resistance
124 29/32--18-day moving average
124 26/32--9-day moving average
124 20/32--4-day moving average
124 20/32--pivot point
124 14/32--previous day's close
124 10/32--previous day's low
124 4/32--first pivot point support
123 27/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 13/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in
early trading. Prices have been trading sideways
for the past four weeks. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week's high of 83.29 and then at 83.53.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 82.82 and then at this week's low of 82.60.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today.
Trading has turned choppy recently. In October
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $75.58 and then at $76.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $74.60 and then at $74.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a
profit-taking pullback from recent gains. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Trading may be quieter today, ahead of
Friday morning's USDA supply and demand and crop
production report.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.