"Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

                                 "EMOTION is your enemy more than any market will ever be."

GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: The purpose of my Update is to share with readers what the technical aspects of a market is suggesting. It is not my personal opinion but merely conveying to readers what market action potentially suggests drawn from my years of experience with the markets and what similar behavior in the past has produced.
The Update is also designed to help you learn what to look for in a market technically and to develop good trading habits irrespective of the results of a particular trade. It is also a guide and tool for those who want to compare it with their own work.

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MY TRADING APPROACH: I normally enter trades only on buy and sell stops. If the market is not going in the direction of the trade, I am normally not interested and the order is not executed.
I do not enter new positions during the night session but only during the day trading hours. I always use globex and always have a protective stop working - even during the night session. My computation of trading costs for each trade in the Update includes commission plus an estimate of exchange fees.

TRADE ALERTS: There will be no further alerts until I return.

MAR COPPER: It has been attempting to overcome the 150 day ma for the last four trading days. So far it has been doing a good job. Only one day did it close under it. Today was an inside day on the daily chart. If it takes out 381.95, it will be triggering a buy. Both long term charts have buys and the weekly is over the 100 day ma. It has a lot of positives and is strongly suggesting a rally to 400.00 at least. Closed 380.75, up .90.

FEB MINI GOLD: It tested the 150 day ma on the daily chart yesterday and backed off of it today. On the weekly it is butting up against the 20 day ma. Based on the weekly, has this rally been the set up for a third wave down? The previous rally had more to it. Will this one? On the daily chart it is in price resistance too. Just watching. Closed 1664.50, down 13.80.

MAR MINI SILVER: It reached price resistance in the 32.700 area and has started to sell off. It also formed an inside day on the daily chart. If it takes out 31.855 tomorrow, it will be triggering a preliminary sell signal. The monthly continues to have a sell signal and on the weekly it is starting to sell off under the 20 day ma again. It may correct from here. Closed 3197.50, down 29.500.

ENERGIES & FINANCIALS:

MAR MINI CRUDE OIL: How confusing. On the daily chart it is back under the 20 day ma as of Friday. However it held in support and formed a strong key reversal bottom yesterday. That is positive. Today was an inside day. If it takes out 100.18 tomorrow it will be triggering a preliminary buy. If it takes out 98.25, it will be triggering a preliminary sell that could challenge the key reversal bottom. Long term the monthly is triggering a preliminary buy this month and has a previous buy. That is positive and the monthly tends to be the leader. Of course, not to make it easy, the weekly is triggering a preliminary sell this week. The one blemish in the mix. Closed 98.95, down 63

MAR EMINI: I took profit on Friday. It rallied to 1318.25 yesterday. Today it continues to struggle in the same area. The main positive is that it is over 1300.00. And the monthly chart is extremely positive. Based on that alone, it looks headed to 1400.00. Closed 1311.50, up .50.
Position: Long 1278.75 (2.6). Exit 1304.75 (1.20). Profit 307.50 (-comm/fees).

DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: They sold off to the late Dec. low and are holding. They have a lot of support at this level going back to early November. They are still range bound. Closed 130.040, up .450.