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Softs Market Commentary


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March sugar closed down 20 points at 24.76 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and did hit another fresh nine-week high early on. The key "outside markets" were bearish for the sugar market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage in sugar. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 25.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 23.52 cents. First resistance is seen at 25.00 cents and then at yesterday's high of 25.21 cents. First support is seen at 24.65 cents and then at 24.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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March coffee closed down 50 points at 219.95 cents. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit another fresh two-week low. The key "outside markets" were bearish for the coffee market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Coffee bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 230.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 216.60 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 221.30 cents and then at 222.50 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 217.55 cents and then at 216.60 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March cocoa closed up $141 at $2,410 a ton. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and hit a fresh two-month high. Price action saw a bullish upside breakout from a bullish pennant pattern on the daily chart. Cocoa bulls have quickly gained the overall near-term technical advantage. A bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has also formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,500. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,230. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2,425 and then at $2,450. First support is seen at $2,400 and then at $2,350.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March cotton closed down 119 points at 98.18 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and saw profit taking from recent gains. The key "outside markets" were bearish for the cotton market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were weaker. Cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above major psychological resistance at 100.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 93.22 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 97.13 cents and then at 96.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 99.00 cents and then at last week's high of 99.47 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March orange juice closed down 135 points at $2.1860 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and saw profit taking from gains that saw prices hit a fresh contract and all-time record high on Monday. There are still worries about imports of FCOJ from Brazil and recent cold weather in Florida citrus regions are very bullish for FCOJ futures. There has also been an orange disease discovered in Texas. Price action in FCOJ recently has been extremely volatile. Look for the higher volatility to continue in the near term. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at $2.500. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below psychological support at $2.0000. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2.2100 and then at $2.2500. First support is seen at $2.1500 and then at $2.1200.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

March lumber futures closed down $5.80 at $235.30 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh contract low. The lumber bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $245.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $237.50 and then at $240.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $234.80 and then at $232.50.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

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About the author


Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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