* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index is posting a modest rebound to start the trading week. Crude oil is also weaker, which has several other commodity futures markets under pressure Monday. The U.S. dollar bulls need to step up and show good power this week, as this week will likely determine whether the recent sell off is just a downside correction in an overall uptrend, or if the uptrend in the dollar index has ended and a fresh downtrend is in place on the daily chart.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,314.40 and then at last week's high of 1,329.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,300.00 and then at 1,286.70. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,450.00 and then at the overnight high of 2,460.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,425.00 and then at last week's low of 2,419.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,500 and then more stops just below support at 12,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,600 and then at Friday's high of 12,650. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 144 even and then at the overnight low of 143 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 16/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh contract high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 132.05.5 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.22.5 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early tradingtoday, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum and bulls need to show more power this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.65 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.00 and then at last week's low of 78.89. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $101.00 and then at last week's high of $101.39. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $98.00 and then at the January low of $97.40. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for grains this morning, as the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Forecasts for beneficial rains in South American corn and soybean regions this week are also a negative factor for the grain markets today.

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Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years.  He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies.  He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.