• Global stocks this morning are mostly higher with the Euro Stoxx 50 up +0.34% and Mar S&Ps up +2.80 points. The dollar is weaker, Treasuries are little changed and commodities rose, with gold at a fresh 2-month high, on speculation U.S. payrolls data for Jan will show at least a +140,000 gain in employment. European government bond yields declined on optimism a resolution to the Greek debt-swap talks may be near as representatives of the troika, the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF, travel to Athens over the weekend to finalize the details of a rescue plan which includes a loss of more than 70% for bondholders in a voluntary exchange and loans likely to exceed the 130 billion euros already agreed to. Another positive factor for stocks was the unexpected +2.0 point increase in the Jan U.K. PMI services to 56.0, stronger than expectations of a -0.7 point decline to 53.3 and its fastest pace of expansion in 10 months. Gains in European stocks were limited though, after Dec Euro-Zone retail sales unexpectedly declined for a second month as sales fell -0.4% m/m and -1/6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -1.3% y/y.
• Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan down -0.51%, China +0.80%, Australia -0.39%, South Korea -0.70%, India +0.99%. Japanese stocks closed lower on weak earnings results from companies including Nippon Sheet Glass and Oji Paper, which cut their profit forecasts on slumping demand from Europe. Nippon Sheet Glass, which depends on Europe for 40% of its sales, tumbled 12% after reversing its full-year profit forecast to a loss, while paper product companies slumped after Oji Paper cut its profit outlook 14%. Gains in bank stocks pushed China's Shanghai Stock Index up to a 1-3/4 month high while the Jan China non-manufacturing PMI fell -3.1 to 52.9 and bolstered speculation the PBOC may take more measures to boost economic growth. The Jan Australia services index climbed +2.9 to 51.9, its highest reading in 5 months, which undercut Australian stocks on speculation the RBA may not loosen its monetary policy.

• March S&Ps this morning are trading up +2.80 points ahead of Jan non-farm payrolls. The US stock market Thursday settled mostly higher after U.S. weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and Fed Chairman Bernanke said the economy has shown signs of improvement: Dow Jones -0.09%, S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq Composite +0.40%. The Nasdaq posted a 10-3/4 year high. Bullish factors on Wednesday included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-12,000 to 367,000 versus expectations of -6,000 to 371,000), (2) upbeat comments on the economy from Fed Chairman Bernanke who said "fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job-market activity have shown signs of improvement," and (3) strength in retailers after Retail Metrics reported Jan U.S. same store sales were up +4%, higher than analysts' estimates of up 3% and after Jan ICSC chain store sales rose +4.8% y/y, the biggest increase in 4 months.
• Bearish factors included (1) the weaker-than-expected Q4 non-farm productivity and higher than expected Q4 unit labor costs (Q4 non-farm productivity +0.7% versus expectations of +0.8% and Q4 unit labor costs of +1.2%, stronger than expectations of +0.8%), (2) concern the Greek debt-swap negotiations may stall after Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, said the Greek bond-swap talks with private creditors are "ultra-difficult," (3) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who said that while recent economic data are better than they were around Aug or Sep of 2011, the U.S. unemployment gap is still "very large," and (4) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that some countries in the Euro-Zone could have slow-growing economies "for quite a while."

• March 10-year T-notes this morning are up +1.5 ticks. T-note prices on Thursday traded on either side of unchanged and finally settled slightly higher as concern the Greek debt-swap talks may fail offset the larger-than-expected decline in weekly jobless claims: TYH2 +6.0, FVH2 +1.5, EDM2 +1.5. Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) concern the Greek debt-swap negotiations may stall after Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, said the Greek bond-swap talks with private creditors are "ultra-difficult," and (2) the action by the Fed to purchase $4.952 billion of Treasuries as part of it Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to keep borrowing costs low. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly initial unemployment claims (-12,000 to 367,000 versus expectations of -6,000 to 371,000), (2) the weaker-than-expected Q4 non-farm productivity and higher than expected Q4 unit labor costs (Q4 non-farm productivity +0.7% versus expectations of +0.8% and Q4 unit labor costs of +1.2%, stronger than expectations of +0.8%), and (3) upbeat comments on the economy from Fed Chairman Bernanke that reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries when he said "fortunately, over the past few months, indicators of spending, production, and job-market activity have shown signs of improvement."
• The dollar index this morning is slightly lower with the dollar/yen +0.05 yen and the euro/dollar +0.14 cents. The dollar index on Thursday gyrated between small gains and losses and settled slightly higher as concern over a failure in Greek debt-swap talks along with dollar-positive comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke offset reduced safe-haven dollar demand from a larger than expected drop in jobless claims: Dollar Index +0.069, USDJPY +0.008, EURUSD -0.00171. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar as concern grows that the Greek debt-swap negotiations may stall after Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Euro-Zone finance ministers, said the Greek bond-swap talks with private creditors are "ultra-difficult," and (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the U.S. economy has shown signs of improvement and that he expects inflation to remain low and the dollar stable, while some countries in the Euro-Zone could have slow-growing economies "for quite a while." Bearish factors Thursday included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar after weekly initial U.S. unemployment claims fell more than expected, and (2) euro positive comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao who said China is still researching the best way to participate in the European Financial Stability Facility, which fuels speculation China may provide funds to aid the European debt crisis.
• Mar crude oil prices this morning are up +19 cents a barrel and Mar gasoline is up +2.04 cents per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices on Thursday fell back on carry-over weakness from Wednesday's increase in weekly DOE inventories along with an easing in geopolitical concerns after the Iranian government said it would let IAEA inspectors return to Iran later this month: CLH12 -$1.25, RBH12 -2.33. Mar crude dropped to a 1-1/4 month low. Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from the surge in DOE gasoline inventories Wednesday to an 11-month high along with the slump in U.S. gasoline demand to a 10-1/3 year low, (2) an easing in geopolitical tensions after Iran said it would allow IAEA inspectors back for a second visit on Feb 21 & Feb 22, and (3) reduced Chinese demand for crude after China National Petroleum said its imports of crude in 2012 may only increase +5.9% from 2011, the slowest growth since at least 2006. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, which indicates labor market strength that may boost fuel demand and (2) comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the U.S. economy has shown signs of improvement, which is positive for energy demand and consumption.

Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): SPG-Simon Property Group (BEST earnings consensus $0.86), SCCO-Southern Copper (0.63), EL-Estee Lauder (1.01), NLY-Annaly Capital Management (0.56), AON-AON Corp. (0.96), WY-Weyerhaeuser (0.06), CLX-Clorox (0.69), BEAM-Beam (0.67), CEG-Constellation Energy Group (0.62), MAC-Macerich (0.29), TSN-Tyson Foods (0.34), TRIP-TripAdvisor (0.38), UFS-Domtar (2.25), WTM-White Mountains Insurance Group (3.40), BRO-Brown & Brown (0.23).

Global Financial Calendar

Barchart.com provides Financial Quotes, Charts and Technical Analysis for Stock and Commodity Traders.