EUR/USD Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
EUR/USD went back and forth like it normally does on a Non-Farm Payroll day on Friday. The pair simply didn’t go anywhere, and the market is still “stuck” between the 1.32 level and the 1.30 level. The area is massive consolidation, and with all of the issues surrounding the supposed Greek debt agreement, and the central bank meeting late this coming week – this pair could sit very still for a while. Traders can buy at the bottom of the range, and sell at the top of the range. However, these are scalps and nothing more. Beyond that, we see no opportunities.
EUR/USD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.3084 and falling as the euro gave way to the USD
The USD soared past all of its major trading partners today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.
This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering.
Retail sales across the 17-nation region fell 0.4% in December, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported. Compared to December 2010, sales declined 1.6%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in December sales and a 1.3% year-on-year fall.
Private-sector activity in the 17-nation euro zone returned to growth in January, according to the final Markit composite purchasing managers index for the region released Friday. The index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.3 in December, confirming an earlier flash estimate. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a figure below that level indicates contraction. The reading marked the first move back above 50 in five months. The data continued to show a divide across the region, with German PMI hitting a seven-month high and French PMI hitting a five-month high, while readings for Italy, Spain and Ireland remained below the 50-level, although the rate of decline eased in Italy and Spain.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
The USD/JPY pair rose for the Friday session as the Non-Farm Payroll numbers came out better than expected. The pair is being lifted by the Bank of Japan, and at the levels that we started the day were the start of serious support from them. The bank has intervened several times recently, so selling down there was never going to be an option.
The rise up to the 76.50 level is worth noting as it was the former support that gave way a few sessions ago. Classic technical analysis says that the support should now be resistance, and at this point it still is. However, selling form this level is reckless. Because of this, we are willing to buy, but only on a fall to lower levels. We cannot sell at all currently.
USD/JPY Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )
USD/JPY was trading at 76.20 holding close to its opening and in a tight narrow range.
Japanese Finance Minister Azumi raised fresh warnings over the strength of the yen, saying low U.S. interest rates were a factor in an acceleration in speculative yen buying, according to reports. Azumi told reporters in Tokyo that the rise in the currency appeared “one-sided” and said “decisive steps” could be taken to halt the movement, adding he had “strong concerns” the rally had lost touch with economic reality in Japan. “I will closely watch market movement and take appropriate action. There is no change in my stance. If there is one-sided movement, I will take decisive steps,” Azumi said. The U.S. dollar rose slightly to ¥76.18 around midday in Tokyo, but the U.S. dollar remained near its post-World-War-II low of ¥75.31, hit on Oct. 31.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.2% -0.8%
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) -1.0% 2.1% 10.1%
AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.20B 1.34B
CHF Trade Balance 2.07B 2.85B 2.95B
GBP Construction PMI 51.4 52.9 53.2
EUR PPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2%
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 38.9% 30.6%
USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 373K 379K
USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 0.9% -2.1%
USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3437K 3565K 3567K
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
GBP/USD Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
The GBP/USD pair had a back and forth session on Friday as the Non-Farm Payroll report came out much stronger than expected. This kind of market isn’t all that uncommon on these days, and as a result most traders probably stepped away.
The Pound still looks strong though, and the move has been nothing short of astonishing. The pair has shot straight up over the last month, and is about 600 pips above where the rally started in just this short time. Certainly the pair is overbought at this point, but the reality is that it takes a lot of fortitude to short it from here.
The 1.58 level held as support at the end of the session, and this is probably the most important part of the candle that formed for the session. Sure, it was a massive long-legged doji that could be telling on a breakout, but the fact that the big figure held shows just how resilient this pair really is at the point.
The 1.59 level just above is going to be resistive, and the 1.60 level above that will as well due to the large round number being a psychologically significant part of technical analysis. However, selling is very difficult to do because the trend has been so bullish lately, and on top of that so aggressively so. The selling of cable will take a specific trigger in order for it to make sense.
The hammer than formed on Monday was confirmation of a move above the 1.57 level, and a pullback to find support. We didn’t go long at that point because the 1.58 was just above. The rally has been a hard one to participate in, and as we are at such lofty levels, it is going to be difficult to join in at present. The above mentioned hammer needs to give way in order to sell this overbought market, otherwise – we have no trade until post- 1.61 or so. The selling of this pair should make sense, as the UK is so heavily exposed to the European Union, but as you know, the markets will do what they want.
GBP/USD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
The GBP/USD is currently 1.5769 and falling. The USD soared past all of its major trading partners today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.
This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering.
The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for Britain’s dominant services sector rose to a 10-month high at 56.0 in January from 54.0 in December. Economists had forecast a January reading of 53.3. A reading of more than 50 signals growth in activity, while a figure of less tha 50 indicates a contraction.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
EUR/GBP had a very quiet day on Friday as the world focused on the US Non-Farm Payroll report. The pair ended up just slightly, and the day can best be described as a washout. The same support level seems to be keeping the pair aloft – the 0.8280 mark. Until that level gets closed below on the daily chart, it will be hard to short this pair. As far as going long, it will be difficult until we get above the 0.84 level, and that area will shortly be followed by resistance at the 0.85 level. We prefer to sell, as the trend to the downside is certainly still intact.
EUR/GBP Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
The pair EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.8298 falling from the high of 0.8340
The markets instantly reverse when news of the US jobs reports were release. Employment grew well above forecast and unemployment fell more then expected. The USD soared past all of its major trading partners today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.
This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering. .
Retail sales across the 17-nation region fell 0.4% in December, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported. Compared to December 2010, sales declined 1.6%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in December sales and a 1.3% year-on-year fall
The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index for Britain’s dominant services sector rose to a 10-month high at 56.0 in January from 54.0 in December. Economists had forecast a January reading of 53.3. A reading of more than 50 signals growth in activity, while a figure of less tha 50 indicates a contraction.
Private-sector activity in the 17-nation euro zone returned to growth in January, according to the final Markit composite purchasing managers index for the region released Friday. The index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.3 in December, confirming an earlier flash estimate. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a figure below that level indicates contraction. The reading marked the first move back above 50 in five months. The data continued to show a divide across the region, with German PMI hitting a seven-month high and French PMI hitting a five-month high, while readings for Italy, Spain and Ireland remained below the 50-level, although the rate of decline eased in Italy and Spain.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
USD/CHF Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
The USD/CHF pair had a volatile day on Friday, just to end up unchanged. This pair is currently consolidating above the 0.90 to 0.91 level that has been so supportive lately. The Swiss are certainly going to feel the economic strain coming out of Europe, and as a result we like owning this pair. However, we haven’t seen the supportive work come up with bullish candles yet. A break of the Wednesday high would be a good sign, and as hammer or engulfing candle as well would work. We are not selling this pair at the moment as the Swiss National Bank could get involved if the Franc’s value rises too quickly. (Mainly out of the EUR/CHF pair.)
USD/CHF Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 6 , 2012, Forecast
The USD/CHF is trading at 0.9216. The USD soared past all of its major trading partners today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.
This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering.
Retail sales across the 17-nation region fell 0.4% in December, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported. Compared to December 2010, sales declined 1.6%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in December sales and a 1.3% year-on-year fall.
Private-sector activity in the 17-nation euro zone returned to growth in January, according to the final Markit composite purchasing managers index for the region released Friday. The index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.3 in December, confirming an earlier flash estimate. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a figure below that level indicates contraction. The reading marked the first move back above 50 in five months. The data continued to show a divide across the region, with German PMI hitting a seven-month high and French PMI hitting a five-month high, while readings for Italy, Spain and Ireland remained below the 50-level, although the rate of decline eased in Italy and Spain.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
The EUR/CHF pair rallied on Friday as risk entered back into the market. The Non-Farm Payroll report had everyone happy, and as a result the Franc got sold off in general. The pair was dangerously close to the “minimum acceptable rate” as the Swiss National Bank refers to 1.20, and as a result we weren’t surprised to see this move. Quite frankly, it looks as if the market wanted to test the will of the SNB until the jobs report came out.
The move upwards was nice, but it is as the 1.21 area that we are seeing our first signs of resistance. IT must be noted that the pair failed at that point, although the candle was closing towards the top. The failure of the pair to break through this area won’t have us selling, but rather looking to buy at close levels to the 1.20 handle. Until then, we wait to see if the area gives way. If this pair does continue to gain, you can be assured that pullbacks will happen with frequency.
EUR/CHF Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF.
08:15 CHF CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders (MoM)
German Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods. It is a leading indicator of production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2064 as the euro lost strength against its trading partners on US employment news.
Traders shouldn’t doubt the resolve of the Swiss National Bank to maintain a ceiling on the value of the franc currency versus the euro, Thomas Jordan, the central bank’s acting chairman, told the Financial Times in an interview published Friday. “There should be absolutely no doubt whatsoever about the capability of the SNB to maintain the minimum exchange rate,” he told the newspaper. “We are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary.” The SNB last September set a floor on the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate at 1.20 francs in an effort to cap a rise in the value of the franc
Retail sales across the 17-nation region fell 0.4% in December, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported. Compared to December 2010, sales declined 1.6%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise in December sales and a 1.3% year-on-year fall.
Private-sector activity in the 17-nation euro zone returned to growth in January, according to the final Markit composite purchasing managers index for the region released Friday. The index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.3 in December, confirming an earlier flash estimate. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth in activity, while a figure below that level indicates contraction. The reading marked the first move back above 50 in five months. The data continued to show a divide across the region, with German PMI hitting a seven-month high and French PMI hitting a five-month high, while readings for Italy, Spain and Ireland remained below the 50-level, although the rate of decline eased in Italy and Spain.
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
AUD/USD Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
AUD/USD rose again for the Friday session as the Non-Farm Payroll number came in much better than anticipated. This boosts the confidence of the markets, and “riskier assets” are suddenly much more attractive as the confidence will spread. The Aussie is a great commodity play, and as a result the markets bought it up everywhere.
The action for the session saw it break the 1.0750 barrier, and it looks set to continue higher in general. There can always be a pullback on a move like this, but all in all – it looks very strong. The commodity market in general have done well recently, and with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates so low until at least the end of 2014, this should continue to favor the Aussie against the Dollar.
The breaking of the top of the Thursday shooting star is significant in and of it, and can be thought of as a buy signal on its own. The very fact that the failed rally was overcome sends a very bullish message to the markets. Also, the fear of a Chinese hard landing seems to have abated, and the Aussie gets bought as a result.
The 1.04 level continues to be the “line in the sand” for us, and until we get below it, we can only buy the AUD/USD pair. The area is far below us, so now the real strategy is to buy dips in this market as it ebbs and flows to a potential target of 1.12 or so. The pullback would be a healthy one, and we would be willing to get involved on any signs of support below here, and above the 1.04 level. The pullback would also give many other traders the opportunity to get involved in what is very obviously a bull market.
However, the 1.08-ish level is resistive as well, and as a result we think this market could struggle up to it. If that area gives way – 1.10 is next. Looking forward, we want to own the Aussie, and aren’t interested in selling it.
AUD/USD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012 Forecast
AUD/USD was trading at 1.0695 The Aussie was lower against the U.S. Dollar on Friday.
The USD continued to hold strenght on the US employment data and on Fed Reserve Fisher, who indicated that the low interest rates set last week by the Fed most likely will not hold until 2014, that is had no basis to project interest rates that far out.
Australia trade balance came in above forecast, giving the markets some positive data. Along with Prime Ministers Gillard, tax reforms and statements of earlier in the week.
The Greek crisis or saga… continues on, its like a famous greek tradegy.. does Homer come to mind… it just never seems to end.
Economic Data results prior trading day (key better than expected worse than expected at forecast)
NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.2% -0.8%
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) -1.0% 2.1% 10.1%
AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.20B 1.34B
CHF Trade Balance 2.07B 2.85B 2.95B
GBP Construction PMI 51.4 52.9 53.2
EUR PPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2%
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 38.9% 30.6%
USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 373K 379K
USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 0.9% -2.1%
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
USD/CAD Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
The USD/CAD pair fell on Friday as the better than expected Non-Farm Payroll numbers had the market comfortable with taking risk. The Canadian dollar rose to the point that we have cleared the parity support area, but are currently sitting just above the 0.99 level. This area continues a long series of support levels all the way down to the 0.9750 level. With this in mind, we favor a short move – but know that there are much more clean markets in which to trade. Currently, we are ignoring this pair until sub-0.9750 becomes a reality.
USD/CAD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI
The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
|
USD |
Monster Employment Index |
133 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
52.3 |
|
51.7 |
|
51.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
53.7 |
|
54.5 |
|
54.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
50.4 |
|
50.5 |
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
56.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
Employment Change |
2.3K |
|
24.0K |
|
17.5K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
7.6% |
|
7.5% |
|
7.5% |
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
The USD/CAD is currently trading at 99.35
The USD soared past all of its major trading partners today after jobs reports beat forecasts in the US.
The US added 243,000 jobs as reported by the Labor Department for the first time since April. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since February 2009.This was the boost the US needed to signal that the economy was recovering.
Where as Canadian unemployment increased to 7.6% and the jobs report came in under forecast. Weakening the CAD
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
NZD/USD Technical Analysis for February 6, 2012
NZD/USD rose during the Friday session as the Non-Farm Payroll numbers in America came out much better than expected. The strong number shows that perhaps there will be an upsurge in demand for commodities and traders will feel more at ease with taking risks. This always favors the Kiwi, and as a result the market rose for Friday. The pair continues to find the 0.8350 level a bit resistive though, so any new long positions should wait to see a breaking of the top of the Friday range in order to buy into the rally. If not, the resulting pullback will be looked at as a potential buying opportunity, and we believe the 0.82 level is the first place we could see support.
NZD/USD Forecast February 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis for February 6, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
00:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
21:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.2%
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
21:45 NZD Labor Cost Index (QoQ)
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate 6.6%
The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 6, 2012, Forecast
NZD/USD is trading at .8313 down from the opening at 0.8332 but remaining in a fairly narrow range. Later on Monday there will be several economic reports in New Zealand which might drive the kiwi. Friday’s drop came after Federal Reserve Director Fisher contracticted the FOMC statement saying that these projections until 2014 had no basis, causing the USD to gain slightly.
Economic Data results prior trading day ( key better than expected worse than expected at forecast )
NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 1.2% -0.8%
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) -1.0% 2.1% 10.1%
AUD Trade Balance 1.71B 1.20B 1.34B
CHF Trade Balance 2.07B 2.85B 2.95B
GBP Construction PMI 51.4 52.9 53.2
EUR PPI (MoM) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2%
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) 38.9% 30.6%
USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.7% 1.0% 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims 367K 373K 379K
USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 0.9% -2.1%
USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3437K 3565K 3567K
Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales
Feb 06 10:10 Norway Bond auction
Feb 07 09:00 Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL
Feb 07 10:10 Greece 6M T-bill auction
Feb 07 10.30 UK Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt
Feb 07 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Feb 16
Feb 07 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes
Feb 08 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Feb 08 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl
Feb 08 10:30 Swiss Bond auction
Feb 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Feb 13
Feb 08 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes
Feb 09 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction
Feb 09 15:30 Sweden Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23
Feb 09 16:00 US Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16
Feb 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14
Feb 09 18:00 Italy Auctions 30Y Bonds
Feb 10 11:00 Belgium OLO auction
