COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on commercial and speculative buying. US economic data was positive for demand bulls as more people are working. There was some talk of potential losses from flooding rains in parts of Australia. Ideas remain that Chinese demand return soon. Chinese economic data remains generally good and planted area there is forecast to be lower, so ideas are that the country will remain a big buyer in world markets. The US National Cotton Council will release its plantings survey later this week. The weather has been dry in some growing areas of Texas as well as in southern South America, although both areas are seeing more beneficial precipitation now. Chart trends are mixed.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will see showers today, then drier weather the rest of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get dry weather for the next few days. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 88.92 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.062 million bales, from 0.054 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 94.10, 93.20, and 92.20 March, with resistance of 97.80, 98.50, and 99.40 March.

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-033661
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 236,798
COMMITMENTS
47,495 18,206 56,807 117,288 147,313 221,591 222,326 15,207 14,471
CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 7,385)
-2,324 2,783 -2,044 12,334 6,003 7,966 6,742 -580 643
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
20.1 7.7 24.0 49.5 62.2 93.6 93.9 6.4 6.1
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 262)
96 79 99 62 74 209 206

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower on speculative selling. The main topic of conversation remains the FDA progress on imported FCOJ contamination. FDA said last Friday that another 10 loads tested will not be allowed in the country. However, it appears that no ban on imports is being considered. Weather in Florida remains mostly good. This week should see mostly dry weather, and moderate temperatures. Some rain is possible in northern areas late in the week. Harvest is continuing to expand. Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and scattered showers. USDA will release its production report for the US this week, and it is possible that production here could be adjusted down slightly. The market looks ready to correct down as the fungicide issue moves out of the market.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 187.00 and 164.00 March. Support is at 202.00, 198.00, and 192.00 March, with resistance at 208.00, 218.00, and 221.00 March.

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-040701
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 38,250
COMMITMENTS
13,270 752 8,036 13,134 27,811 34,440 36,599 3,811 1,651
CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 97)
34 -0 345 -419 162 -40 507 137 -410
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
34.7 2.0 21.0 34.3 72.7 90.0 95.7 10.0 4.3
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 105)
56 16 21 26 24 90 53

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher Friday, with London leading the way on light offers from Vietnam. Cash market offers remain low due to the prices as sellers are not interested. Brazil coffee areas appear to be in good condition under generally good weather, and Coexim on Friday estimated production this year at 55.8 million bags. Showers have been frequent and temperatures have been warm, and generally traders anticipate that the country will produce at least 50 million bags, with many estimating production near 55 or so million bags. Loss reports from Central America are still around, and lower production is reported from Colombia as well after too much rain. Some showers are forecast for Brazil this week that will be beneficial for crops there. Arabica futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and less than expected Washed Arabica Coffee production over the coming year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.535 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 185.17 ct/lb. Brazil should get showers and storms later this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should also get showers, but Central America and Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 207.00 and 188.00 March. Support is at 210.00, 207.00, and 203.00 March, and resistance is at 217.00, 218.00, and 220.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1795, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1855, 1900, and 1925 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 300.00, and 307.00 March.

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-083731
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 173,674
COMMITMENTS
28,542 25,036 53,509 83,442 85,633 165,492 164,178 8,182 9,497
CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 10,553)
793 3,220 5,451 3,325 840 9,569 9,511 983 1,042
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
16.4 14.4 30.8 48.0 49.3 95.3 94.5 4.7 5.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 340)
85 107 113 117 116 263 289

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher as speculators bought on ideas of better demand potential after the US released positive employment data. Plenty of supplies are available to the market. Traders pointed to European economic problems as reasons to worry about demand. Futures are in a trading range. India returned to its traditional position as a major exporter after being a big importer the previous year, and has talked about lifting export controls due to big stocks now in the country. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak with big production reported in the northern hemisphere. There is talk of less production in Brazil again later next year due to the poor weather in the south and lower prices. Weather is getting better there now. FO Licht on Friday estimated world 2011-12 Sugar production at 175.8 million tons, up 0.7% from its previous estimate and an all time high production.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near normal. Mexico has produced 1.61 million tons of Sugar so far this year, from 1.82 million tons last year. Indonesia said it will not import White Sugar this season as it has enough on hand to last until the domestic milling season begins in May. India is expected to approve another 1.0 million tons in Sugar exports tomorrow.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2285, 2265, and 2254 May, and resistance is at 2365, 2385, and 2405 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 613.00, 607.00, and 598.00 May, and resistance is at 623.00, 632.00, and 635.00 May.

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-080732
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 844,819
COMMITMENTS
144,417 42,633 192,189 435,264 526,738 771,870 761,560 72,949 83,259
CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 25,256)
1,530 4,191 3,247 30,000 17,164 34,777 24,603 -9,520 654
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
17.1 5.0 22.7 51.5 62.3 91.4 90.1 8.6 9.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 234)
76 57 93 85 94 210 198

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher opn big speculative short covering. Exports from West Africa have begun to drop significantly and the market found a bid on ideas that the main season harvest might be ending early and that the weather there is turning hot and dry. Traders are hearing reports of big winds in western Afria now that could hurt quality or cause cherries to drop off the trees. Exports from Indonesia are also down sharply. Charts show that the market are now in a correction after the recent big rally.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.258 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2190, 2175, and 2150 March, with resistance at 2340, 2390, and 2420 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1470, 1440, and 1420 March, with resistance at 1540, 1620, and 1650 March.

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-073732
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/31/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) OPEN INTEREST: 192,710
COMMITMENTS
27,496 32,792 36,308 117,945 111,634 181,749 180,735 10,961 11,976
CHANGES FROM 01/24/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,580)
-2,401 -5,849 976 390 2,151 -1,036 -2,722 -545 1,142
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
14.3 17.0 18.8 61.2 57.9 94.3 93.8 5.7 6.2
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 164)
41 56 54 53 50 126 133

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322